A Surplus of Diesel, Gasoline via Deer Park and Dos BocasBy Anamary Olivas | Sun, 07/24/2022 - 23:05
Mexico will have a fuel surplus owing to its Deer Park and Olmeca refineries, according to PETROIntelligence. With these two projects added to the national refining system, more than 1MMb/d of gasoline and 527Mb/d of diesel will be available, which would exceed the country’s domestic demand.
With the production of the Deer Park refinery in Houston, Texas, recently acquired by PEMEX, as well as with the incorporation of the Olmeca refinery, located in the port of Dos Bocas, Tabasco, it is projected that Mexico could produce more than it needs itself, opening up room for potential refined fuels exports. Octavio Romero, Director General, PEMEX, assured that the US$596 million that were invested in the Deer Park refinery have already been recovered during 1H22. Thought some analysts find the administration’s statements overly positive, most experts agree the purchase was a sound investment.
According to a simulation based on the data available, the consulting firm concluded that Mexico would be able to meet its internal demand, although imports still form a significant part of the fuel supply. Some of this supply could even be sold abroad, according to PETROIntelligence. However, the López Obrador administration previously assured that neither crude oil nor gasoline would be sold abroad.
Regarding gasoline, the national supply would be just over 1MMb/d, whereas the national demand stands at 737Mb/d, so there would be a daily surplus of 306Mb.
Of this production, 232Mb/d would come from the six PEMEX refineries that are already in operation, 170Mb would arrive from Dos Bocas, 136Mb from Deer Park, 340Mb/d from PEMEX’s imports and 164Mb/d from private imports.
For diesel, the national supply would rise to 527Mb/d , while the demand is 314Mb/d. This means Mexico would have 213Mb/d barrels more than it needs. Mexico would soon produce 118Mb/d through its historic refineries, 120Mb/d barrels via Olmeca and 92Mb/d at Deer Park. PEMEX would import 102Mb/d and private companies would import 95Mb/d.
PETROIntelligence CEO Alejandro Montufar specified that this scenario is based on the data available to date. Therefore, several variables may alter the balance of imports or experts.