US‑Israel Strikes on Iran Disrupt Global Shipping, Energy Routes

The US–Israel military campaign against Iran has disrupted two critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening roughly 20% of global oil flows and significant volumes of LNG and containerized cargo. Prolonged instability could raise energy prices, increase shipping costs, and delay supply chains, affecting manufacturing, energy, and logistics sectors. Gulf states and regional shipping hubs face operational and security uncertainties, while global energy markets monitor potential disruptions to Middle East export routes.

The ongoing US–Israel military campaign against Iran has heightened risks to global energy and shipping markets by threatening two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Experts agree that any prolonged disruption could choke energy exports and ripple through containerized cargo flows between Asia, Europe and North America.

The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, serves as a critical global oil passage, with 2023 flows averaging 20.9MMb/d, roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum liquids, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, accounted for an estimated 12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas shipments in the first half of 2023. Together, these two waterways form a vital corridor for both energy exports and containerized cargo traveling between Asia, Europe, and North America.

Experts highlighted that even temporary blockage of the Strait of Hormuz can lift global energy prices, increase freight rates, and create supply delays for industries relying on just-in-time delivery models. Amrita Sen, Founder and Director, Energy Aspects, said approximately 15MMb of oil and around 80Mt of LNG traversed the Strait of Hormuz last year.

When asked whether Iran would seek to shut off the strait completely, she said: “We do not think that is very likely. The United States and Israel would just take that out, very, very quickly. The United States has way more superior military power to just neutralize any of Iran’s abilities to do that. While we are not saying the strait is going to get closed, what the United States will not be able to do is control these one-off attacks on tankers, and that is enough to make the market extremely cautious about sending vessels in. That is what creates the disruptions.”

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta, said higher container shipping rates should be factored in for the Middle East region for as long as the conflict persists. “The risk of geopolitics has shown its ugly face with higher frequency and more severity over the past years than ever before,” he said. “I think it is fair also to say there is a little bit of fatigue also in the industry because you draw 10 contingency plans only to tear them all up because there is a new twist and a new angle to it.”

United States–Iran Conflict Escalates

The conflict between the United States and Iran escalated sharply in late Feb. 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint military campaign against Iran. The strikes targeted hundreds of strategic sites, including air defenses, missile installations, and command centers, reportedly killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other senior officials. US authorities described the operation, named Operation “Epic Fury,” as an effort to dismantle Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities.

In response, Iran conducted widespread ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory and US military bases across the Gulf, including facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Allied actors were drawn into the confrontation: Hezbollah in Lebanon, aligned with Iran, launched missiles into northern Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes in Beirut and surrounding areas.

Casualties and damage were reported on multiple fronts. In Israel, at least nine people were killed and roughly 450 injured, amid strikes that destroyed a synagogue in Beit Shemesh. Gulf states intercepted missiles, though falling debris caused structural damage. The Pentagon confirmed three US service member deaths and five serious injuries, while US Central Command reported successfully defending against hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks. In Iran, preliminary figures from the Iranian Red Crescent Society and state-linked media indicate at least 201 fatalities and 747 injuries.

The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session, with global leaders calling for de-escalation. Russia condemned the US–Israeli strikes as “unprovoked aggression,” while regional airspace closures disrupted civil aviation.

The conflict is expected to continue for at least several days. US officials signaled that the military operation could go on over an extended period, with Reuters reporting that planners anticipate a campaign potentially lasting weeks. In a separate interview with the Daily Mail, President Trump suggested the strikes could continue for up to four weeks.

Iranian authorities have rejected claims of renewed nuclear negotiations with the United States. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated on X that Tehran “will not negotiate with the United States,” criticizing US actions as destabilizing and warning that US military personnel would bear the cost.

Meanwhile, the role of Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, is uncertain. These nations face a complex dilemma: while they are US allies and have been targeted by Iran, they aim to avoid direct involvement in a war largely driven by US–Israel objectives. Regional voices, such as Qatar’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani, have urged restraint, emphasizing that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) should act collectively to confront aggression without being drawn into the conflict.

“GCC must not be dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran, even though Tehran violated the sovereignty of the Council’s states and was the aggressor,” Sheikh Hamad wrote. “A direct clash between the Council’s states and Iran will deplete resources on both sides and provide an opportunity for external forces to assert control under the pretext of resolving the crisis.