Mexican Exports to the United States Broke Records in January

Mexican exports to the United States in January reached a record-breaking value of US$41.6 billion, marking an increase of US$2.4 billion compared to December, reports the United States Census Bureau. This 6.2% rise represents the highest January growth recorded since 1985. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the potential US tariffs, trade between the two nations has continued to grow. 

Additionally, data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that in January, the United States recorded a trade surplus of US$15.5 billion in goods with Mexico, making it the fourth-largest trade surplus after China (US$29.7 billion), the European Union (US$25.5 billion), and Switzerland (US$22.8 billion).

Tariff Talks Between Mexico and the United States

This week, President Claudia Sheinbaum engaged in direct negotiations with US President Donald Trump to address the tariffs imposed by the latter country. Sheinbaum described the conversation as respectful, emphasizing the advances Mexico has made in reducing fentanyl trafficking and improving security cooperation between both nations. Following the discussion, Trump announced a postponement of tariff decisions until April 2, shifting the focus toward reciprocal tariff agreements.

Trump confirmed the decision on his social media platform, Truth Social: "After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This agreement is valid until April 2. I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for President Sheinbaum. Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the border, both in terms of stopping illegal aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping fentanyl. Thank you to President Sheinbaum for your hard work and cooperation!"

Mexico’s Minister of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, mentioned in today’s press conference that Mexican exports compliant with USMCA regulations will not be subject to tariffs until at least April 2. While most of Mexico’s trade with the US falls under the USMCA framework, a significant portion of companies previously operating under the "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) status may now opt for the USMCA rules to avoid tariffs. Ebrard estimated that 85%-90% of Mexico’s exports to the United States would now be covered under the agreement.

Future Trade Considerations

As April approaches, further decisions regarding US trade policies are anticipated. The Mexican government is actively working with businesses that may face challenges in meeting USMCA standards, particularly in the automotive and related industries. Discussions with the US Trade Representative (USTR) are scheduled for the coming weeks to clarify the path forward, says Ebrard.

One key issue on the table is the tariff policy on steel and aluminum. A meeting is set for March 12 to address Mexico's argument that such tariffs are unjustified, as Mexico imports more US steel and aluminum than it exports to the United States. The broader implications of Trump’s "reciprocity" trade policy will also be addressed on April 2, as he plans to announce new tariff measures affecting global imports.

Sheinbaum emphasizes the importance of Mexico’s exemption from tariffs under the USMCA framework. She explains that Mexico’s lack of import duties on US products ensures continued reciprocal treatment. While the agreement covers nearly 90% of Mexican exports, a small percentage of companies operating outside the USMCA framework will still be subject to tariffs.

Business Confidence and Investment Outlook

Despite concerns over tariffs, investment in Mexico remains strong. Ebrard highlights that the country’s investment portfolio currently stands at US$217 billion, with major companies like SEMPRA Infraestructura and Mercado Libre continuing their planned investments. The Mexican government remains committed to supporting businesses and maintaining sovereignty in trade negotiations, navigating uncertainties while fostering economic stability.