Mexico’s Economy Contracted 0.14 percent Last Year

Mexico's economy registered a 0.14 percent contraction in 2019, according to seasonally adjusted figures released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

In Q4 last year, the country’s economy contracted 0.4 percent at an annual rate, the sharpest fall in 2019. In Q1 the figure was 0.0 percent, in Q2 it rose by 0.1 percent while in Q3 it  contracted by 0.2 percent.

The GDP drop in last year’s fourth period completed two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, thus meeting the technical definition of a recession.

“You don't need a Committee to define if last year there was a recession. Classifying it as a recession or stagnation does not change reality,” Moody’s Analytics consulting director Alfredo Coutiño said, quoted by El Economista. The specialist warned that the definition is irrelevant when data disclosed by INEGI show that private consumption, encouraged by government transfers and remittances, was the only thing that limited a deeper decline during 2019.

The 2019 result matches estimated projections published by INEGI last January and also by analysts, and also represents the first contraction since the 2009 global economic crisis.

INEGI statistics show that industrial sector (or secondary activities) registered an annual drop of 1.9 percent, triggered mostly by the 5.1 percent plunge in mining. Only in the October-December period of 2019 the industrial sector registered a negative variation. The 1.2 percent drop on the previous quarter was affected by poor automotive industry results and a slow-paced construction sector. This was the fifth negative consecutive quarter result for the industrial sector.