Mexico's Economy Faces Headwinds as Trade Agenda Advances

BBVA cuts Mexico's 2026 GDP forecast to 1.2%, investment has contracted for 19 straight months and domestic demand is weakening. In addition, Mexico's top security officials met with US Ambassador Johnson to review migration cooperation.

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BBVA Cuts Mexico's 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.2%

BBVA has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Mexico downward to 1.2%, from a prior estimate of 1.8%, citing a slowdown in domestic investment and consumption even as the country's trade position relative to the United States remains one of the strongest in the world.

IMEF Cuts Mexico 2026 GDP Forecast to 1.1%

The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) has revised its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast downward from 1.2% to 1.1%, citing weak economic expansion driven by a prolonged contraction in gross fixed investment. According to the institute, the investment slowdown intensified following the approval of controversial constitutional reforms enacted during the final months of the previous presidential administration.

Mexico, US Hold Talks on Migration, Trafficking Gains

Mexico's Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodríguez and Foreign Affairs Minister Roberto Velasco met with US Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson on June 19 to review the bilateral migration agenda. Both governments highlighted progress in reducing irregular flows and disrupting human smuggling and trafficking networks. 

USMCA Renegotiation Talks to Begin July 1: Ebrard

The formal USMCA review will officially begin on July 1, Mexico’s Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard confirmed. Speaking from Washington on June 18 after concluding a second round of preparatory talks with United States officials, Ebrard clarified that July 1 marks the procedural start of the evaluation process mandated under the trade pact, rather than a strict deadline for concluding negotiations.

UK-Mexico CPTPP Trade Pact Takes Effect June 22

The United Kingdom's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force with Mexico on June 22, 2026, following Mexico's formal ratification of the agreement. The development brings the two countries under a shared multilateral trade framework for the first time, activating preferential tariff treatment across a broad range of goods and sectors.