Mexico's GDP Contracts in 1Q26, Primary Activities Decline

Mexico’s GDP contracted by 0.8% in 1Q26 when compared to 4Q25, according to INEGI. Data shows that contractions across all three economic sectors drove the decline, with primary activities showing the deepest decline at 1.4%. Despite this contraction, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that the Mexican economy would grow by 1.5% in 2026, an increase from its previous estimations.

According to INEGI’s Flash Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), while the quarterly variation showed a decline of 0.8%, the GDP increased 0.2% when compared to the 1Q25. 
The quarterly contraction was reflected across all sectors of the economy. Primary activities experienced the largest decrease, followed by secondary activities with a 1.1% decline, while tertiary activities saw a reduction of 0.6% relative to 4Q25. 

The annual performance presented mixed results among the economic sectors. Tertiary activities recorded an increase of 0.9% compared to the same period in the previous year. Conversely, primary activities decreased 0.1%, and secondary activities fell 1.1% year-on-year. 

Mexican Exports Surge 27.7% in March 2026
Mexican exports increased by 27.7% in March 2026 year-on-year, reaching a total value of US$70.7 billion. This performance resulted in a trade surplus of US$5.9 billion for the month, driven primarily by a 29.6% increase in non-oil exports. Within the manufacturing sector, which rose 29.5%, mining and metallurgical products saw the most significant spike with a 61.8% increase.

MBN reported that trade with the United States remained a core driver, with non-oil exports to the US market advancing 28.2% year-on-year. However, the automotive sector showed a mixed performance; while total light vehicle exports rose 4.2%, shipments specifically to the United States declined by 6.4%. This contraction was offset by a notable diversification effort toward Latin America, where exports to Brazil and Argentina grew by 251.3% and 133.3%, respectively.

Mexico’s 2026 Growth Forecast Revised Upward to 1.5%
Despite a slow start to the year, ECLAC has revised Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 1.5%, compared to its previous projection of 1.3%. This updated outlook also represents an improvement over the 0.8% growth expected for 2025. 

While Mexico stands out with an upward revision, the broader Latin American and Caribbean region is expected to grow only 2.2%, as geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, and tighter financial conditions weigh on activity, as reported by MBN.

For Central America and Mexico, ECLAC projects growth of 1.7% in 2026. However, the commission warns that persistent risks, including a 74% increase in WTI oil prices compared to December 2025, could add pressure to production and transportation costs. This suggests that while Mexico's trajectory is improving, it remains below the pace needed to substantially accelerate investment and productivity.