Trump's Deportation Plan Faces Major Legal, Economic Hurdles

The Trump administration is anticipated to encounter significant legal, resource, and infrastructure challenges in implementing its mass deportation plan for the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants, rendering such an undertaking unfeasible at this scale.

On his first day in office, Trump is expected to sign approximately 20 executive orders, including one aimed at reversing the Biden administration's border policies, initiating mass deportations, and resuming the construction of the border wall.

Manuel Pastor, Professor of Sociology and American Studies, University of Southern California, highlighted that the plan to deport between 11 to 12 million undocumented residents is unfeasible. However, he noted that repatriating 1 to 2 million people throughout Trump's administration could be achievable, nearly doubling the 935,000 deported during his first term.

A primary obstacle to the mass deportation initiative is the economic cost. While Trump maintains that funding will not be an issue, the report Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget, and Economy by the American Immigration Council, estimates that deporting 1 million immigrants annually would incur a cost of US$88 billion. The report also notes that such a program would require over 10 years to implement, involving the construction of hundreds or thousands of new detention centers. If the Trump administration opts for a one-time deportation operation, costs could exceed US$315 billion.

The infrastructure needed to support a large-scale deportation is another major challenge, compounded by a shortage of sufficient immigration personnel. “While threats of deportation have instilled fear, the US immigration system has been broken for years under multiple administrations, with no lasting solution in sight,” said Ken Salazar, former US Ambassador to Mexico.

The economic impact of deporting migrants presents additional complications. According to the American Immigration Council, the deportation of all undocumented migrants could reduce US GDP by between 4.2% and 6.8%, similar to the contraction experienced during the 2007-2009 recession. Pastor cautioned that removing a significant portion of the workforce could also provoke opposition from businesses, corporations, and labor unions.

The legal landscape will also create substantial hurdles, as many undocumented migrants are seeking legal counsel to challenge their deportation, leading to protracted legal battles. Javier Urbano, Professor, Universidad Iberoamericana, emphasized that the US immigration court system is already overloaded, with fewer than 1,000 judges handling millions of cases, leading to a backlog of around 3 million cases.