US-Mexico Bilateral Relationship Challenged By Migration

As the US prepares to lift its COVID-19-era immigration restrictions, it simultaneously prepares to deal with a surge of migration at the US’ southern border. While the shift was implemented, President Joe Biden held a virtual meeting with his Mexican counterpart, President López Obrador, aiming to find a joint strategy to tackle the coming wave of migration at their shared border.

The virtual encounter was set for Friday, April 29. Before the meeting, the White House shared that the two leaders were set to discuss “cooperation on migration, joint development efforts in Central America, competitiveness and economic growth, security, energy and economic cooperation.”

“I look forward to discussing our vision for the Ninth Summit of the Americas and discussing North America priority initiatives for the region,” Biden tweeted ahead of the conversation.

The call was scheduled after the Biden administration planned to lift public health order “Title 42,” on May 23. The decree was issued during the Trump administration and allows for the deportation of migrants back to Mexico or their country of origin without the chance to file for asylum, using the justification of COVID-19 protection measures. The lifting of Title 42 may encourage a new wave of immigration to the southern US border in the months before the US midterm elections, which will decide whether Biden’s Democratic Party retains control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Even before Title 42 was removed, border crossings stood at record-high levels. During March 2022, US border authorities arrested 210,000 people attempting to cross the border, the highest monthly figure in two decades. About half of the migrants encountered are forced to return to Mexico and prevented from seeking asylum.

When Title 42 is lifted, the Biden administration predicts that roughly 12,000 migrants will begin crossing the border daily. In accordance with international law, migrants will be allowed to live in the US while they pursue asylum claims, a process that can take between two and four years.

In addition, the Biden administration has sought to end the Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico, which requires that people seek asylum at the southern border. As such, the migrants, mainly from Central and South America, must wait in Mexico while their claims are reviewed.

López Obrador’s administration has collaborated closely with the US to reduce migration flows since the start of the Trump administration. With Biden looking to create a more humane US migration policy, Mexican authorities share concerns of a sudden increase in migration, a situation that could be exploited by Mexico’s cartels.

The migration issue rises at a time when the bilateral relationship between the US and Mexico finds itself in rough waters. During the past months, President López Obrador's energy reform proposal deteriorated the bilateral relationship, as the reform’s potential approval in Congresses could have generated a violation of the USMCA by damaging the US’ economic interests.

Aside from the energy reform, Mexico’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war has also separated the North American partners. The US had hoped Mexico would join in enforcing sanctions on Moscow, but Mexico maintained a mostly neutral position although it did condemn the invasion.

After the meeting, López Obrador held his second tour abroad as he visited four Central American countries and Cuba. During his visit, the president spoke to his counterparts about economic development and social programs that could lessen the pressure for people to migrate. Mexico has previously urged the US government to support some of its initiatives in Central America as part of North America's joint migration strategy.

Before López Obrador’s trip to Central America, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard visited the US to meet with high officials to discuss the migration strategy. The US is due to host the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles to convene leaders from North, South and Central America, as well as the Caribbean. Ebrard advocated President López Obrador’s request to include all countries of the American continent in the summit.

The US announced it would not invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the Summit of the Americas, as these countries do not respect the Democratic Charter of the Americas and are therefore not expected to add value to the meeting by the continent’s largest economy. Meanwhile, President López Obrador said that he will not attend unless representatives of all the countries on the continent are invited. Although it is still uncertain whether López Obrador will attend, experts warn that his statement could increase diplomatic irritation between the US and Mexico at a time when the relationship is already tense.