World Bank Forecasts 0% Economic Growth for Mexico in 2025

The World Bank downgraded its economic outlook for Mexico, projecting zero growth for 2025, a sharp revision from the 1.5% forecast issued in January. The downgrade is attributed to rising trade tensions fueled by protectionist policies from the United States.

The institution also slightly lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, down from the 1.5% estimate at the start of the year. Mexico is among the countries most affected by the new wave of US protectionism, given that over 80% of its exports go to the US market. 

“The apparent shift in US trade policy toward higher tariffs casts uncertainty over nearshoring strategies and broader access to global markets,” the World Bank warned in its latest Latin America and Caribbean Economic Report.

The World Bank’s projections are slightly more optimistic than those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasted a 0.3% contraction in Mexico’s GDP for 2025. However, both forecasts contrast sharply with those of the Mexican government, which earlier this month projected GDP growth between 1.5% and 2.3% for 2025, and between 1.5% and 2.5% for 2026.

These revised projections come as the IMF and World Bank hold their annual Spring Meetings in Washington, dominated this year by discussions on the global impact of tariff-driven trade wars led by US President Donald Trump.