Electricity Demand: What Mexico, the US Can Learn From Each Other

Just five years ago, nobody in the power industry could have predicted that artificial intelligence would become one of the most important drivers of electricity demand in North America. Discourse at that time focused on renewable integration, electric vehicles, emissions reduction, and gradual load growth. In fact, it wasn’t until 2023 that the Black & Veatch Electric Report, an in-depth survey and analysis based on around 500 US-based energy stakeholders annually, surfaced energy-intensive cloud computing and data centers as an emerging issue impacting the electric grid. 

Fast forward to the Black & Veatch 2025 Electric Report where power availability for data centers pop up as a major issue for the industry. As my colleague Todd Edsall, president of Power Providers for Black & Veatch, framed the issue in his forward, “For years, the energy conversation focused on cutting emissions. That still matters. But it’s no longer the main priority. The big story now is growth: how to plan for it, how to pay for it and how to deliver reliable service as loads spike unpredictably. Large-scale data centers need power that is equivalent to the load demand of entire cities — and they need it in 18 months, not the six years that infrastructure development typically requires. Only 19% of respondents express[ed] strong confidence in forecasting these massive loads.” 

AI, cloud computing, hyperscale data centers, advanced manufacturing, and digitalization are reshaping demand forecasts in the United States and forcing utilities, developers, and governments to rethink the scale and speed of infrastructure development. That transformation offers an important lesson: the future rarely grows in a straight line and infrastructure planning must anticipate disruption rather than react to it. 

Electricity demand across North America is entering a new growth cycle. While the United States is experiencing a sharp increase in load growth from AI and cloud-computing infrastructure, Mexico is seeing increasing demand from industrialization and the need to provide reliable power to capture manufacturing investment. Both countries are discovering that the challenge is no longer simply generating electricity, it is building the broader energy system required to support growth. 

The scale of the challenge is significant. The United States operates more than 1,300GW of installed generating capacity, while Mexico's installed capacity is approximately 100GW. Despite the difference in scale, both countries face similar questions. How much infrastructure is enough? Can the power capacity be delivered and connected to the grid fast enough to meet customer demands? And how can grid reliability be maintained while demand patterns are changing faster than ever before? 

Powering Mexico’s Future Growth 

Mexico's growth story is different to the United States, of course, but no less compelling. The newly adopted PLADESE 2025-2039 resource plan (Mexico’s National Electricity System Development Plan) recognizes that electricity demand will continue to grow alongside industrialization, demographic expansion and rising economic activity. Nearshoring potential, manufacturing investments, logistics hubs, and emerging data-center developments all point toward sustained industrial growth over the coming decade. 

In addition, population growth and improvements in living standards remain important drivers of electricity demand. A growing population means Mexico will need more housing, transportation, healthcare, education, telecommunications, and water services to support community prosperity. 

Together these factors represent a structural increase in electricity intensity across Mexico in the coming years. PLADESE 2025-2039 sets out targets for investment that expands power capacity and improves the long-term reliability of the grid. It outlines plans for the addition of nearly 65GW, including almost 51GW of renewable energy and 9GW of energy storage. Further, it emphasizes that critical investments in transmission infrastructure will ensure that economic growth is not constrained by energy availability. 

Systems Thinking, Customer Needs, and Delivery Constraints 

Perhaps the most important lesson from a new era of energy growth in the United States is that investment in new power generation facilities requires more than simply planning for self-contained assets. Every new data center, industrial facility, semiconductor plant, or manufacturing campus requires a network of supporting infrastructure: transmission lines, substations, water systems, telecommunications networks, transportation corridors, natural gas infrastructure, and skilled labor. Infrastructure has become an ecosystem rather than a collection of independent assets. Successful delivery is about effectively integrating ecosystems of technologies, partners and business models. 

This broader perspective is particularly relevant for Mexico. The country has a unique opportunity to attract industrial and digital infrastructure investment, but success will depend on more than competitive labor costs or geographic proximity to the United States. Investors increasingly evaluate regions based on the availability of reliable power, water security, transportation infrastructure, permitting certainty, telecommunications capacity, safety, and access to experienced talent. A shortage in any one of these areas can become the bottleneck that limits overall growth. 

The challenge is compounded by growing pressure on supply chains. Demand for gas turbines, transformers, and other critical equipment is increasing faster than manufacturing capacity can respond. Additionally, the industry faces shortages of engineering professionals and skilled construction labor. The next decade may be defined as much by competition for talent as by competition for equipment. 

Planning Beyond Megawatts

The most important lesson from the United States is that demand growth is no longer driven solely by population and economic expansion; it can be rapidly transformed by technological change. Six years ago, few expected AI to become a major driver of electricity demand and the next disruptive force may be equally difficult to predict. 

For Mexico, this means planning beyond megawatts. The country must think of growth as an infrastructure ecosystem where electricity, water, telecommunications, and the workforce to build the infrastructure are planned together rather than independently. The objective should not simply be to build more power plants; it should be to create industrial, digital infrastructure and talent development corridors capable of supporting decades of sustainable growth.