The Rise of Armchair Economists: Today, Everyone Is a Market Guru

2026 promises to be a challenging year. In its early days, President Donald Trump has left us astonished not only because of Venezuela, but also because he had dinner, at his holiday resort in Mar-a-Lago, with Elon Musk. In the age of Instagram, a picture is worth a thousand theories, or even more: billions of dollars. The comments and "expert analysis" came instantly. What did it mean when Elon Musk posted a photo captioned "2026 is going to be amazing!"? A reconciliation? Would Musk return to the US government? How would his companies' stock prices perform on the next trading day? It seemed everyone in social media knew more than the two people who had just had dinner together. 

A year before at Mar-a-Lago, both leaders also had dinner, but that time it included Jeff Bezos. Musk later tweeted that “it was a great conversation." Immediately, social media exploded. Were they talking about the crypto market? Was freedom of speech in jeopardy because the entrepreneurs own The Washington Post (Bezos) and X (Musk)? Would they be able to carry out their space projects jointly with the government?

Headlines, television programs, and especially social media content emerged to give “a voice to experts” on all these topics and many others. The examples are endless. From the highly publicized case of Musk and Dogecoin, to Trump himself when he uses the words "tariffs" and "Mexico" or "China" in the same sentence. How can we avoid falling into the limitless feed of noise when being digital hermits is not feasible?

The rise of so-called "Armchair Economists" in recent years, and now the popularization — and superficiality — of analyses of any social, economic, and political issue by creators is an undeniable fact. An academic degree is no longer important; having an account with thousands of followers and perhaps a verification badge is enough. Undoubtedly, social media has been a driving force for democracy. Freedom of expression is a right we must protect as broadly as possible. However, while we may question, debate, and analyze within ourselves and our closest circles, we cannot base our arguments on 280-character headlines. This is further amplified when those who share their opinions do so, as experts, without possessing sufficient knowledge or experience in the field.

Relevance today often depends on visibility and, ideally, stirring controversy to gain traction in algorithms. This is no small matter when we see how the market capitalization of companies has become strictly disconnected from book value and is now also driven by "Sentiment Analysis." If people detect excitement, likes, and positive keywords surrounding the Trump-Musk dinner photo, users (and bots) would buy Tesla or Truth Social stock because the collective feeling is that “something good is coming.” Indeed, the stock market creates bubbles and is largely based on expectations; however, as never before, these expectations are not being set by rating agencies or banks, but by famous influencers.

How many times have we seen or heard phrases like "happiness is a journey, not a destination," which, when delivered forcefully, cheerfully, or in a visually appealing way, generate thousands of views? The problem arises when the repeated phrase is taken out of context, oversimplifies, or falls prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect; that is, people with low or very basic knowledge of a subject (geopolitics or the futures markets) overestimate their abilities.

Sadly, the nature of cyberspace has become distorted. What was once the enormous potential of accessing vast amounts of information and having non-unidirectional communication has now become an echo chamber. The infamous feedback loop creates a misconception of reality in many cases. We all know that if we look at an alarmist post, the algorithm will show us 10 similar items. This is how people are led into making emotional financial decisions and, even, digitally induced “panic selling or buying.”

This algorithmic bias, coupled with the fact that some applications suggest that investing is just like playing a video game (gamification of trading), has bankrupted companies and left citizens, in many cases, with their finances severely compromised, or even with the exodus of people after seeing content about pollution, insecurity, or economic instability in their country, even if they had never experienced it firsthand.

Could a social media guru ask us to get a tattoo that says, "Tell me who you follow, and I'll tell you what they're selling?" It is up to us to decide who we consider leaders, who are truly experts offering us verified information and opinions, and who are just a lot of noise. This could be a wonderful goal for 2026.

@soylaucoronado