2026 World Cup Set to be Football’s Most Carbon-Intensive Ever

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is projected to generate a record 7.8 million tons of CO2e, with 87% of emissions attributed to spectator air travel. The projected footprint is intensifying scrutiny of sustainability claims and compliance with international climate standards, highlighting persistent challenges in reducing the environmental impact of major sporting events. For Mexican municipalities, transportation providers, and hospitality operators, the tournament underscores the need to accelerate carbon-mitigation initiatives and expand scalable low-emission mobility solutions to manage the event’s environmental footprint.

——

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate 7.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), making it the most carbon-intensive tournament in football history and more than double the emissions reported for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. According to an independent assessment by carbon accounting platform Greenly, spectator air travel will account for 87% of the event’s total carbon footprint, far exceeding emissions from stadium operations, logistics, or infrastructure.

Co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 tournament will feature 48 teams and 104 matches across 16 cities, representing a 63% increase in matches compared to Qatar 2022. Organizers expect to sell approximately 6 million tickets, up from 3.4 million in the previous edition. Greenly estimates that spectator travel alone will generate 6.82MtCO2e, equivalent to the annual carbon footprint of roughly 725,000 people.

“Nearly 90% of the estimated emissions associated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup will come from spectator travel,” said Alexis Normand, co-founder, Greenly. “The greatest opportunity for change lies in hosting events in denser, better-connected regions, reducing travel distances, and making sustainability a meaningful criterion in host-city selection.”

A Different Emissions Profile

The tournament’s emissions profile differs significantly from that of Qatar 2022. While Qatar built seven new stadiums and renovated another, causing infrastructure to account for nearly a quarter of its carbon footprint, the 2026 World Cup will rely exclusively on existing venues. As a result, stadium construction and renovation are expected to account for just 3.1% of total emissions, or 174,978tCO2e, compared with 893,337tCO2e in Qatar.

Accommodation-related emissions are also projected to decline. Greenly estimates lodging will generate 367,200tCO2e, down from 728,403tCO2e in 2022, partly because hospitality infrastructure in North America is less energy-intensive than Qatar’s heavily air-conditioned facilities.

These reductions, however, are outweighed by transportation emissions. Spectator travel is expected to account for 87.8% of total emissions, up from 51.7% in Qatar, driven by the vast geographic footprint of the tournament and the need for long-distance international travel. Other emissions sources include urban transportation (161,604tCO2e), food and merchandise (80,670tCO2e), logistics and freight (63,716tCO2e), stadium operations (63,126tCO2e), waste management (19,282tCO2e), and team travel (17,677tCO2e).                                                                                                                                                                                      

Greenly’s analysis shows that international spectators will represent 35% of total attendance but generate 74% of travel-related emissions. The average round-trip journey for an international visitor is estimated at 19,400km, compared with approximately 13,000km during Qatar 2022. Combined, an estimated 2.1 million international visitors will be the primary driver of the tournament’s carbon footprint.

Per-fan emissions vary considerably by country of origin. A spectator traveling from India is expected to generate an average of 3,253kgCO2e for a round trip, followed by visitors from Saudi Arabia at 2,879kgCO2e, Sudan at 2,692kgCO2e, Iran at 2,686kgCO2e, Egypt at 2,562kgCO2e, Argentina at 2,032kgCO2e, Morocco at 1,841kgCO2e, and the United Kingdom at 1,735kgCO2e.

Growing Scrutiny of Climate Commitments

Greenly’s 7.8MtCO2e estimate is significantly higher than the 3.7MtCO2e projection included in the original 2018 World Cup bid prepared by engineering firm ARUP. That estimate was based on an 80-match tournament format and has not been updated to reflect the final 104-match schedule.

The discrepancy highlights growing questions about climate commitments in global sports. Under the UN Sports for Climate Action Framework, FIFA pledged in 2021 to halve emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. However, while FIFA’s sustainability strategy addresses logistics, waste, and energy efficiency, it does not set a specific emissions cap for the 2026 tournament and does not directly address spectator travel, the largest source of emissions.

Climate-related scrutiny has intensified in recent years. In 2023, Switzerland’s advertising regulator ruled that claims of carbon neutrality associated with Qatar 2022 were unsubstantiated, marking the first formal greenwashing decision against a global sports organization.

According to Greenly, future tournaments can reduce their environmental impact by limiting long-distance travel, selecting more geographically compact host regions, and encouraging lower-carbon transportation options such as rail travel and carpooling among domestic spectators, who are expected to account for 65% of attendance at the 2026 World Cup.