UNAM Scientists Report Unprecedented High Temperatures

UNAM scientists reported that the extreme temperatures across the country represent an unprecedented condition. The year 2024 could be the hottest on record, driven by the El Niño phenomenon and exacerbated by climate change.

UNAM's Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change (ICAyCC) warns that the country will soon experience the highest temperatures in history. Jorge Zavala, Director, ICAyCC, emphasized the unprecedented nature of this situation, as communities will face temperatures they have never encountered before. "In Mexico City, temperatures will reach 34 or 35°C, while San Luis Potosi will see temperatures above 45°C," he stated.

Additionally, high temperatures could affect pollutant levels due to the presence of ozone. Zavala explained that when temperature rises, so does the concentration of ozone. "Although there is no direct cause-effect relationship because both phenomena are consequences of higher solar radiation, there is a relationship in the meteorological conditions, and the chemical reactions are favored by high temperatures," he explained.

Francisco Estrada, Coordinator of UNAM’s Climate Change Research Program (PINCC), emphasized that last April was the warmest on record in 47 countries worldwide, including Mexico. This was an unprecedented event, making it very likely that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. According to Estrada, this phenomenon is mostly due to urbanization. UN data reveals that cities, which cover less than 2% of the Earth's surface, are the main contributors to global warming. Urban centers consume 78% of the world's energy, emit more than 70% of total greenhouse gasses (GHG), and produce 70% of the planet's waste.

Data from UNAM indicates that the municipalities and boroughs in Mexico City most affected by the heat wave will be Venustiano Carranza, Nezahualcoyotl, Iztacalco, Cuauhtemoc, and Gustavo A. Madero, where temperatures have risen by one or two degrees Celsius.

Víctor Manuel Torres, Tropical Meteorology Researcher, ICAyCC, pointed out that since 2023, it was warned that the El Niño phenomenon would cause very high temperatures this spring, similar to those in May 1998, which lasted for 13 days, or in 2003, when the heatwave lasted eight days. Torres clarified that although this iteration of El Niño is not the most intense on record, it is among the five largest, and its effects have been magnified by climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that GHG emissions are currently at their highest level in recorded human history. Carbon and other GHG emissions trap the sun's heat in the atmosphere, preventing it from escaping into space, thus causing global warming.

The latest Global Climate Report, covering the period 2023-2027, projects an alarming future. The average annual temperature of the planet is expected to increase by 1.1°C to 1.8°C compared to the pre-industrial era. The probability that one of these years will be the warmest on record is overwhelming, reaching an astounding 98%, as reported by the Global Compact, the UN initiative that leads corporate sustainability worldwide.

To cope with the expected high temperatures in Mexico, Torres highlighted that the population should take various safety measures, such as avoiding sun exposure and wearing light-colored clothing. Moreover, additional recommendations include taking breaks between daily activities, especially for people working outdoors, drinking plenty of water, using sunscreen, adjusting activity schedules (either very early or late in the day), and taking extra precautions if exercising outdoors.