Global Hiring Plans Hold Steady for Early 2026: ManpowerGroup

Global hiring expectations remain steady heading into 2026 as employers balance measured expansion with ongoing economic pressures, according to ManpowerGroup’s latest Employment Outlook Survey. The report, which gathered responses from more than 39,000 employers across 41 countries, places the global Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for 1Q26 at 24%. The figure reflects a four-point annual decline but a four-point improvement over the previous quarter, signaling a cautious but consistent labor market.

The survey shows that 40% of organizations plan to add staff in the 1Q26, while another 40% expect to maintain their current workforce levels. Only 16% forecast reductions. Among employers planning to expand teams, organizational growth remains the primary driver, cited by 37% of respondents. Another 26% point to investments in new business areas, suggesting that companies are reallocating workforce strategies rather than simply replacing departing workers. Just 19% of planned hires are intended to backfill vacancies.

For companies anticipating headcount reductions, economic challenges are the most cited factor, referenced by 29% of respondents. Market changes reducing demand for certain roles follow at 24% , while 22% say staffing cuts are needed to match activity levels. Only 20% attribute reductions to automation, indicating that economic signals, rather than technological disruption, continue to influence workforce decisions.

Jonas Prising,Chair and CEO, ManpowerGroup, says the data reflects a labor market adjusting cautiously to broader economic conditions. He notes that the global outlook has averaged 24% over the past nine quarters and emphasized employers’ continued demand for human skills despite selective hiring. Prising added that while AI is expected to improve productivity, today’s hiring decisions remain primarily shaped by the economic environment.

The slowdown is most evident among large enterprises. Organizations with more than 5,000 employees report a NEO of 21%, down nine points from the previous quarter and 25 points year-over-year. Mid-sized firms, defined as those with 250 to 999 employees, lead sentiment with a 28% outlook, reflecting stronger confidence in staffing plans.

Sector-specific expectations vary. Employers in Finance and Insurance report the strongest hiring intentions at 32%, followed by information at 29% and construction and real estate at 27%. The public sector, health and social services, and utilities and natural resources register the most cautious forecasts, ranging from 20% to 22%. Trade and logistics stands at 23%.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific continues to lead with a 30% outlook, holding steady quarter-over-quarter and increasing slightly year-over-year. The Americas follow with a 26% outlook, led globally by Brazil at 54%. Guatemala and the United States report 28% and 27%, respectively, while Argentina records the weakest regional figure at 10%. North America’s outlook drops to 25%, its lowest since 2Q21.

The European Union and the Middle East register the lowest regional outlook at 20%. The United Arab Emirates leads the region at 46%, while the Netherlands and Ireland follow. The United Kingdom reports 13%, and Romania and Slovakia record 0% and negative 3%, respectively.

The survey indicates that employers across regions are preparing for early 2026 with stable but selective hiring strategies. Organizational growth, investment shifts, and economic signals are shaping decisions more than technological displacement, underscoring ongoing demand for specialized talent and evolving workforce capabilities.