IMSS Reports Rare January Job Decline After Weak 2025

Mexico recorded a net loss of 8,104 formal jobs in January 2026, marking the weakest performance for the month since 2009, according to IMSS data. The contraction, concentrated in construction and agriculture and affecting states such as Campeche, Sonora and Tabasco, signals slowing labor market momentum following a weak 2025 and complicates efforts to reduce informality. Lower formal job creation has direct implications for domestic consumption, social security contributions, regional investment dynamics and workforce formalization targets.

Mexico posted a net loss of formal jobs in January 2026, marking the weakest performance for the month in 17 years. Data from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) show 8,104 positions were lost compared with December 2025. The result places 2026 among only two January contractions since 2001.

The IMSS reported that total registered jobs fell from 22,517,076 in December 2025 to 22,508,972 in January 2026. According to data compiled by México ¿Cómo Vamos?, this represents the lowest January performance since 2009, when 105,015 formal jobs were lost in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

The January decline also places the country short of the monthly benchmark established under the “economic traffic light” indicator, which sets a target of 100,000 new formal jobs per month to meet labor market needs.

A Rare January Contraction

Monthly employment fluctuations are common, particularly in January, when temporary holiday contracts often end. However, historical data suggest that outright losses during this month are unusual.

Since 2001, January job losses have occurred only twice: in 2009 and in 2026. Over the past decade, only four Januarys have surpassed the 100,000-job threshold: 2018, with 113,722 new positions; 2022, with 142,271; 2023, with 111,699; and 2024, with 109,021 formal jobs created.

Previous reports highlighted that 2025 was the second weakest year for new job creation in the past decade. Between January and November 2025, Mexico accumulated 599,389 new formal jobs, the lowest figure for that period in 10 years.

The latest data therefore reinforce a broader trend of moderation in formal employment expansion. For policymakers and analysts, sustained job creation is critical to absorb new entrants into the labor force and to reduce informality, which continues to account for a significant share of total employment in the country.

Regional Disparities Deepen

The January contraction was concentrated in 17 states. Campeche, Sonora and Tabasco registered the largest employment declines during the month, according to IMSS records. These states have economic structures closely tied to energy, construction and public works, sectors that often experience volatility linked to investment cycles and government spending.

In contrast, the strongest job creation in January was recorded in the State of Mexico, Mexico City and Hidalgo. These entities benefit from diversified economic bases, including services, commerce and manufacturing linked to domestic consumption and regional supply chains.

The uneven performance across states underscores structural differences in regional economies. Northern and southeastern states tied to energy or large infrastructure projects may see sharper swings in formal employment when activity slows. Meanwhile, central states with broader services sectors may experience more stable labor demand.

Sectoral data released by IMSS show mixed trends. Communications and transport led annual growth in formal employment in January 2026, expanding 9.7% compared with the same month in 2025. Commerce followed with 3.6% growth, and electricity registered a 2.2% increase.

By contrast, construction and agriculture were among the sectors reporting job reductions. Construction, in particular, tends to show sensitivity to both public infrastructure spending and private investment decisions. Agriculture can be affected by seasonal patterns and weather-related disruptions, which may influence short-term hiring dynamics.

Gender Gap Narrows Gradually

Data compiled by México ¿Cómo Vamos? indicate that for every 100 men registered in formal employment as of January 2026, there were 67.8 women. While this gap remains significant, the ratio has increased steadily since 2015, showing gradual gains in female labor force participation within the formal sector.

The gender composition of formal employment has implications for income distribution, productivity and social security coverage. An expansion of formal jobs typically brings access to benefits such as health services, pensions and housing credits, which are tied to IMSS registration.

However, the January contraction suggests that progress toward expanding formal coverage may face short-term setbacks. Given that informality remains widespread in Mexico’s labor market, sustained formal job creation is central to improving productivity and tax revenues.

The IMSS registry is widely used as a proxy for formal employment trends because it captures salaried workers enrolled in social security. While it does not measure informal employment or self-employment outside the system, it provides one of the most timely and comprehensive indicators of labor market conditions.

The January results come at a time when Mexico’s economic outlook is influenced by external and domestic factors, including global demand conditions, investment flows and public spending patterns. Slower employment growth may weigh on household consumption, which represents a significant share of GDP.

Looking ahead, analysts will monitor whether the January decline represents a one-month adjustment or the beginning of a more sustained slowdown in formal job creation. February and March data will provide additional signals on hiring trends in key sectors such as manufacturing, construction and services.

For now, the figures confirm that January 2026 stands out as the weakest start to the year for formal employment since 2009. With only two January contractions recorded in the past 25 years, the latest data highlight the challenges facing Mexico’s labor market at the outset of the new year.