Mexican Migrant Job Losses in United States Threaten Remittances

Mexican immigrant employment in the United States fell 8.9% year-over-year in 1Q26, a loss of 664,589 jobs concentrated in construction, professional services, and manufacturing, according to CEMLA. The contraction, linked to intensified US immigration enforcement, threatens the wage base that funds remittances to Mexico, even as rising average transfer values kept 1H26 inflows up 3.1% to US$30.76 billion. 

Employment among Mexican immigrant workers in the United States fell by 664,589 positions in the first quarter of 2026, an annual drop of 8.9%, according to the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA). The decline, concentrated in construction, professional services, and manufacturing, signals a deepening labor contraction with direct implications for Mexico's remittance income.  

CEMLA's recent report places the total number of employed Mexican immigrant workers at 6.82 million as of March 2026, down from 7.49 million a year earlier. The contraction hit men disproportionately, with male employment falling 13.4%, while female employment declined by a smaller margin. CEMLA states the drop "suggests a significant contraction of the Mexican immigrant population, possibly driven by substantial voluntary and involuntary return migration," linking the trend to tighter US immigration enforcement rather than a broad-based US labor slowdown alone.  

The employment slide is not isolated. CEMLA data show Mexican immigrant employment peaked in the third quarter of 2024 and has declined steadily since, coinciding with the start of stricter US immigration enforcement under the Trump administration. Mexican-origin workers, both US-born and immigrant, represented 19 million employed individuals in the United States in 2025, equivalent to 11.6% of total US employment. Of that total, 7.2 million were Mexican-born immigrants, a workforce CEMLA estimates equaled 84.5% of the number of workers registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS). Because Mexican immigrant employment and wage income are the primary source of funding for remittances sent to Mexico, CEMLA has flagged the sector's contraction as a structural risk for the flow of family remittances, historically Mexico's largest source of foreign currency alongside foreign direct investment.  

Despite the employment contraction, remittance flows to Mexico have so far avoided a comparable collapse. Total inflows expanded 3.1% year-over-year in the first half of 2026 to reach US$30.76 billion, supported by a rise in the average transfer amount, from US$386 in the first half of 2025 to US$405 in the same period of 2026, even as total transaction volume fell 1.8%. This stabilized a rebound in labor force participation among documented and undocumented Mexican migrants, which rose from 65.8% in November 2025 to 66.3% in May 2026, alongside a migrant unemployment rate that dropped to 3.9% that month. The apparent divergence between CEMLA's employment figures and the remittance rebound points to a labor market in which fewer Mexican immigrants hold jobs, but those who remain employed are earning more, a pattern CEMLA has also documented in prior notes tracking rising average wages among Mexican immigrant workers even as headcount falls.  

Additional bilateral friction is compounding the uncertainty. Family remittances already contracted 4.6% in 2025, to US$62.47 billion from a 2024 record of US$64.75 billion, after the US government introduced a 1% federal excise tax on cash-based remittance transfers effective January 2026. President Claudia Sheinbaum has criticized the levy as inconsistent with the 1994 bilateral double-taxation treaty and has launched a federal reimbursement program for affected workers. A separate regulatory framework, unveiled in mid-May 2026 and scheduled to take effect in September 2026, will require US financial institutions to verify and record the identity and immigration status of remittance senders for every transaction, could introduce compliance hurdles for formal transfer channels and heighten precautionary behavior among migrants, particularly those without documented status.

For Mexico, the combined signals point to a workforce facing growing pressure to remain employed, retain legal status, and sustain income levels in the United States, even as remittance income continues to function as a critical buffer for millions of Mexican households. CEMLA has recommended that Mexico strengthen labor reinsertion programs, skills recognition, entrepreneurship support, housing access, and social security coverage for returning migrants, framing the issue as a labor and social policy priority rather than solely a migration or border-enforcement matter.