Mexico’s ICT Industry Extends Recovery as Outlook Strengthens

Mexico’s ICT industry extended its recovery in August, with companies reporting growth, while sales expectations for September reached their highest recent level and optimism about the next quarter continued to improve.

Mexico’s information and communications technology (ICT) industry extended its recovery in August, marking a third consecutive month of improvement in Select’s monthly survey. The gains were reflected in current sales, expectations for September, and business confidence for the coming quarter.

The proportion of companies reporting growth increased to 69.7% in August from 67.5% in July. At the same time, expectations for September strengthened, with a larger share of companies anticipating strong rather than moderate growth.

Select’s ICT sales index rose from 63.9 points in July to 66.8 points in August, reaching its highest level since December 2025. Of the companies surveyed, 69.7% reported growth in August. Within that group, 13.2% reported strong growth and 56.6% reported moderate growth. The improvement was also reflected among companies reporting weaker results. Only 2.6% reported a strong decline, down 2.6 percentage points from July, while 10.5% reported a moderate decline. The proportion of companies reporting no change increased to 17.1%.

The results indicate that August’s improvement was driven primarily by a reduction in the number of companies experiencing declines rather than by a substantial increase in the number reporting growth.

September Expectations Reach a Recent High

The index for expected ICT sales increased from 73.7 points in July to 76.0 points in August, its highest level in the recent series. Overall, 83.8% of surveyed companies expect to grow in September, slightly below the 85.7% recorded in July. The composition of those expectations, however, changed significantly.

Companies expecting strong growth increased to 21.6%, up 8.6 percentage points from the previous month. Meanwhile, the proportion anticipating moderate growth declined from 72.7% to 62.2%.

No companies surveyed expect a strong decline in September, while only 1.4% anticipate a moderate decrease. As a result, the higher expectations index reflects greater confidence in the magnitude of growth rather than an increase in the overall number of companies expecting growth.

Business Confidence Continues to Recover

Optimism about the coming quarter also increased in August. The quarterly optimism index rose from 53.9 points in July to 55.0 points, extending a three-month recovery. The proportion of companies classified as optimistic or very optimistic increased from 53.3% to 54.7%. The strongest change came among the very optimistic, whose share rose from 10.4% to 13.3%.

Meanwhile, companies classified as somewhat optimistic declined from 45.5% to 42.7%. Pessimistic companies remained a marginal group, although their share increased from 1.3% to 2.7%.

All three business indices remain above the 50-point threshold and have followed an upward trajectory since January. Expected sales continue to represent the strongest of the three indicators.

Regarding 2026 sales targets, 45% of respondents expect to meet or exceed their goals, while 42% anticipate falling short, generally by 10% to 20%.

External conditions represent the main constraint. Budget limitations, liquidity and customer uncertainty accounted for 47% of the factors mentioned by respondents, compared with only three mentions related to internal causes. Companies expecting to meet their targets are relying in part on the seasonal increase in business typically associated with the final months of the year. This leaves the sector with a significant dependence on a strong fourth quarter.

AI Becomes a Priority for 2027 Planning

The responses regarding 2027 planning show that ICT companies are focusing primarily on decisions within their control. Some 70% of responses described actions such as renewing portfolios, incorporating AI, and adjusting costs, while only 6% connected their plans directly with external conditions.

AI emerged as the most common theme, accounting for 19% of responses. Its role, however, remains focused more on intentions and portfolio development than on delivery capabilities. Some companies said they plan to add AI to their offerings, while only two reported investing in employee training to develop the capabilities required to deliver those services.

Other assumptions that remain less formalized include customer budgets, component prices and public-sector spending, despite their impact on business performance in 2026.

The August results point to a recovering ICT sector, but they also show that the improvement remains exposed to customer budgets, liquidity and uncertainty. Companies are responding through portfolio changes, cost adjustments, and AI initiatives, while investment in the capabilities needed to execute those strategies remains limited.