Iran War Without a Clear End; Trump Eyes Hormuz Takeover

President Trump sent contradictory signals on March 9 about the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, declaring the war "very complete, pretty much" before changing course and vowing to "go further," while stating he is "thinking about taking over" the Strait of Hormuz. The absence of a defined endgame, with stated objectives shifting between regime change, military degradation, and coercive settlement, prolongs uncertainty over global oil supply at a critical chokepoint carrying 20% of world crude flows, with direct implications for Mexico's energy costs, export competitiveness, and trade planning.

Ten days into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, President Trump's shifting statements on March 9, claiming near-victory while threatening escalation and a potential takeover of the Strait of Hormuz, signal no clear strategic endgame for a conflict disrupting 20% of global oil supply and rattling energy markets worldwide.

In a phone interview with CBS News on March 9, President Trump said the war was nearing its conclusion. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," he said, speaking from his Doral, Florida. "They have no navy, no communications, they have got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There is nothing left in a military sense."

Trump added that the operation was "very far ahead of schedule," noting that he had initially estimated it would take about a month. "Wrapping up is all in my mind, nobody else's," he said.

Hours later, the president reversed course. "We could call it a tremendous success right now," he said. "Or we could go further. And we are going to go further." He warned that the United States would intensify strikes if Iran continued to threaten oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. "We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to recover that section of the world."

On March 8, War Secretary Pete Hegseth  described a campaign phase that has yet to begin. "The ability for us to be up over the top and hunting with more conventional munitions, gravity bombs, 500lb, 1,000lb, 2,000lb bombs on military targets,  we have not even really begun to start that effort of the campaign," he said. When Trump was asked on March 9 about the apparent contradiction with his own statements, he replied: "I think you could say both."

Hormuz and Oil Markets

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively ground to a halt. Trump said the strait is currently open and claimed ships have been entering, but added he is still "thinking about taking it over." He threatened Iran directly: "They have shot everything they have to shoot, and they better not try anything cute or it is going to be the end of that country."

Oil markets swung sharply March 9. The price of Brent crude reached US$120/b before Trump's statements, after which the US benchmark dropped as much as 13.7%, or approximately US$13/b. Prices remain above pre-war levels. Major stock indices closed in positive territory after spending most of the day in the red.

Succession and Political Fallout

On March 8, Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei, 56-year-old son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had been named as Iran's new supreme leader. Trump said he had "no message for him. None, whatsoever," adding that he has someone else in mind to lead the country. On March 6, Trump posted on Truth Social demanding "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" and called for "GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s)" to be selected following any such surrender.

Analysts say the succession undercuts one of Washington's apparent objectives. "Trump called Mojtaba 'unacceptable' and Iran's establishment chose him precisely because the enemy rejected him. If regime change was the goal, this appointment is evidence that it has already failed in its political dimension," said Muhanad Seloom, Assistant Professor of international Politics and Security, Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Iran has retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones at Israel and Gulf neighbors, targeting military bases, energy infrastructure, US embassies and civilian areas.

Shifting War Aims

Analysts have catalogued several stated and unstated objectives that have shifted across the 10 days of the conflict: the collapse of the Islamic Republic, a deal with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elimination of Iran's military capabilities, and indirect regime change through Kurdish armed groups. Each has faced obstacles. The IRGC has pledged full obedience to the new supreme leader. Iranian diplomats have publicly rejected Trump's offer to switch sides. Kurdish groups, analysts say, "lack the capability, unity, or logistics for anything resembling an invasion," according to Seloom.

Mustafa Hyder Sayed, Executive Director, Pakistan-China Institute, said the administration misjudged Iranian resilience. "I believe it was a miscalculation on the part of Trump, because they did not expect and understand that Iran has the resilience and the staying power to fight a long, drawn-out war."

Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Security Studies, King's College London, said the most practical path remaining is a coercive settlement. "Washington could still be open to an understanding with elements of the regime, including IRGC-linked actors, if those actors were willing to protect the state while conceding enough on missiles, nuclear restrictions and regional behaviour to let Trump claim success."

Trump and Republicans face congressional midterm elections in November. A special election is underway on March 10 in a solidly conservative district in northern Georgia, where rising fuel costs and the war are cited as voter concerns. Democratic candidate Shawn Harris, a farmer and retired brigadier general, said: "Because gas prices are going up, everything's going through the roof, and it is not because of something else, it is something that we chose to get into. I think I am going to pick up more voters simply because we are into a war."