Mexico Exports to US Rise 13% in 1H26 Despite Tariff Pressure

Mexico's merchandise exports to the United States reached US$298.2 billion in the first half of 2026, a 13.0% year-over-year increase, reinforcing the country's position as the United States' largest trading partner despite the continuation of sector-specific tariffs and ongoing negotiations over the review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Data released by the US Census Bureau also showed Mexican imports from the United States rose 16.6% to US$195.6 billion, resulting in a US$102.6 billion trade surplus for Mexico, up 6.6% from the same period in 2025.

The figures come as Mexico and the United States prepare for the fourth round of negotiations for the first USMCA review, scheduled for the first week of September. Discussions have addressed US trade concerns and include proposals and requests exchanged by both governments as they seek to update the agreement while maintaining regional supply chain integration.

Current trade flows have continued despite the tariff measures imposed by the United States. US customs authorities apply a 35% tariff on Canadian products and 25% on Mexican products that do not comply with USMCA rules of origin, citing insufficient cooperation on fentanyl trafficking and migration. In addition, the United States maintains 25% tariffs on light vehicles, excluding US content, and 50% duties on steel, aluminum and copper imported from both Mexico and Canada.

Despite those measures, Mexico remained the United States' largest trading partner during the first six months of the year. Bilateral trade represented 16.5% of total US trade, ahead of Canada at 12.6%, China at 6.2%, Taiwan at 5.6% and Vietnam at 4.4%.

US Census Bureau data also showed that total US merchandise imports from all trading partners fell 1.1% year over year to US$1.746 trillion during the January-June period. At the same time, US exports increased 15.0% to US$1.239 trillion, leaving the country with a trade deficit of US$507.5 billion.

The United States currently applies a mixed tariff structure consisting of a 10% baseline tariff on many imports, in addition to sector-specific duties on products such as automobiles, steel and aluminum and higher tariffs on selected Chinese goods. The effective tariff rate varies depending on product category, country of origin and the existence of applicable trade agreements.

Trade between the United States and Canada expanded at a slower pace than trade with Mexico. Canadian exports to the US totaled US$200.2 billion, up 1.4% year over year, while Canadian imports from the United States increased 1.9% to US$175.8 billion. The US trade deficit with Canada narrowed 1.9% to US$24.3 billion.

Trade with China continued to contract. US imports from China declined 22.8% to US$129.3 billion, while US exports to China slipped 0.7% to US$55.5 billion. As a result, the US trade deficit with China narrowed 33.9% to US$73.9 billion during the first half of the year.

The trade data were released weeks after Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, outlined Washington's priorities ahead of the USMCA review. Greer said the United States will seek mechanisms to reduce its trade deficit with Mexico during the negotiations.

Referring to discussions with Mexican officials, Greer said negotiations to renew the agreement "are going well" and have been "quite pragmatic," indicating that both governments have maintained technical discussions despite trade disputes and existing tariff measures.

Mexico's broader trade performance also reflected continued export growth beyond the US market. According to INEGI, the country's global merchandise exports increased 24.6% year over year during the first half of 2026 to US$389.7 billion. Nearly all major export categories expanded during the period.

Agricultural exports were the main exception, declining 4.0% compared with the first half of 2025. The decrease contrasted with gains across manufacturing and other export-oriented industries.

The automotive sector, which remains one of Mexico's largest export industries, continued to grow despite US tariff measures. Automotive exports increased 1.0% during the first six months of 2026, reflecting sustained demand and the continued integration of North American vehicle production under USMCA supply chains.

Mexican exports to the United States reached US$534.9 billion in 2025, increasing 5.8% annually and giving Mexico a 15.7% share of total US imports. Mexico also became the leading destination for US exports, receiving approximately US$338 billion in goods during 2025.

Mexico's monthly trade balance also strengthened in June. According to INEGI, Mexico posted a US$4.09 billion trade surplus in June 2026, up from US$2.26 billion in May. For the first six months of 2026, Mexico recorded a cumulative trade surplus of US$9.86 billion, compared with US$1.43 billion in the first half of 2025.