Mexico Posts Eight Consecutive Months of Export Growth

Summary: Mexico closed 2025 with eight consecutive months of export growth, driven by strong non-oil and non-automotive manufacturing shipments, underscoring the resilience of its industrial base despite declines in automotive and oil exports, according to Centro de Estudios Económicos del Sector Privado. The trend matters as rising imports of intermediate goods and a widening trade deficit signal sustained manufacturing activity tied to US demand, reinforcing Mexico’s deep integration into North American supply chains. The shift benefits export-oriented manufacturers leveraging USMCA rules, while exposing oil producers and parts of the automotive sector to ongoing external and structural pressures.

Mexico extended its export growth streak to eight consecutive months at the end of 2025, underscoring the resilience of its manufacturing base and the continued strength of external demand, particularly from the United States. Total Mexican exports reached US$48.0 billion in December 2025, an 8.1% increase year over year, according to the Private Sector’s Economy Studies Center (CEESP). The performance capped a sustained period of positive annual growth, even as specific sectors faced headwinds.

The expansion in exports was largely supported by non-oil shipments, which grew 9.8% annually, reflecting the continued strength of Mexico’s industrial sector. Within this category, extractive exports surged 81.1%, while manufactured goods rose 9.4%, highlighting broad-based momentum outside the energy sector. Data points to a favorable external environment for Mexican producers, particularly those integrated into global manufacturing supply chains.

Non-Automotive Manufacturing Offsets Auto Sector Decline

A closer look at manufacturing exports reveals diverging trends across subsectors, with non-automotive industries playing a crucial stabilizing role.

Automotive exports fell 9.0% year over year in December, reflecting ongoing adjustments in global vehicle production and demand. However, non-automotive manufactured exports climbed 17.8%, more than compensating for the decline in the auto segment and sustaining overall manufacturing growth. This shift suggests a gradual broadening of Mexico’s export base, as industries beyond automotive manufacturing contribute more significantly to export performance.

In contrast to the strength seen in manufacturing, oil exports continued to weaken, exerting downward pressure on overall trade figures. Oil exports dropped 33.5% annually, reflecting both lower international oil prices and reduced crude export volumes. The decline underscores the diminished role of oil in Mexico’s export structure compared with previous decades.

Imports Rise on Strong Demand for Intermediate Goods

On the import side, Mexico recorded solid growth at the start of 2026, signaling sustained activity in domestic production chains. Total imports reached US$54.5 billion in January, an increase of 9.8% year over year. The composition of imports showed a clear divergence by category:

• Consumer goods: -3.8%

• Capital goods: -4.4%

• Intermediate goods: +14.2%

The sharp rise in intermediate goods imports reflects higher demand for production inputs, a trend typically associated with elevated manufacturing and export activity.

Trade Deficit Widens Despite Export Momentum

The combined dynamics of exports and imports resulted in a wider trade gap at the start of the year. Mexico posted a US$6.48 billion trade deficit in January, according to CEESP. While non-automotive manufacturing continues to show a positive bias, the organization noted that pressures remain tied to oil sector weakness and the uneven performance of the automotive industry.

Looking ahead, CEESP said Mexico’s trade trajectory will depend heavily on external conditions, particularly demand from the United States and the continuity of regional production integration.

Mexico remains deeply linked to US supply chains, making developments in North American trade policy and manufacturing cycles critical to its near-term outlook.

Mexico Remains the United States’ Top Trade Partner

Mexico closed 2025 as one of the United States’ most significant trading partners, even as bilateral trade dynamics shifted toward the end of the year. According to December 2025 data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. goods deficit with Mexico narrowed by US$3.3 billion, falling to US$14.5 billion, reported MBN. 

US exports to Mexico increased by US$2.0 billion to US$30.6 billion, while imports from Mexico declined by US$1.3 billion to US$45.1 billion.

Mexico’s marginal improvement occurred during a month when the overall US trade balance deteriorated.

The total US goods and services deficit widened to US$70.3 billion in December, up from US$53.0 billion in November, as imports rose faster than exports. December exports totaled US$287.3 billion, while imports climbed to US$357.6 billion, driven by a larger goods deficit and a slightly smaller services surplus.

Despite the month-to-month improvement, Mexico remained one of the largest contributors to the US goods deficit in December. The largest country-level goods deficits included Taiwan (US$19.8 billion), Vietnam (US$17.6 billion), and Mexico, followed by China (US$12.4 billion) and the European Union (US$11.1 billion).

Notable shifts included a sharp increase in the US goods deficit with Taiwan and a steep drop in the US surplus with Switzerland, which together helped explain the broader expansion in the US goods deficit.

Structural Weight of Mexico in Annual US Trade

On a full-year basis, Mexico’s importance in US trade remains substantial. In 2025, the US recorded a $901.5 billion goods and services deficit, with goods deficits led by the European Union ($218.8 billion), China ($202.1 billion), and Mexico ($196.9 billion). Vietnam and Taiwan followed closely behind.

Analysts point to rising competitiveness for Mexico as tariff differentials widen and compliance with the USMCA becomes a strategic advantage. According to reports cited by MBN, the share of Mexican exports using USMCA provisions jumped from 44.8% to 88.7% in 2025, as companies restructured supply chains to reduce tariff exposure. The trend is reshaping regional trade flows and reinforcing Mexico’s role as a preferred manufacturing platform for the US market.