Mexico Weighs Buying More From the US as USMCA Review Approaches

President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed Mexico is evaluating increased purchases of US goods to help narrow the bilateral trade surplus, which reached US$102.6 billion in the first half of 2026, ahead of the fourth USMCA joint-review negotiating round scheduled for September 2026 in Washington. The move would affect manufacturers under the IMMEX program, companies sourcing inputs from Asian supply chains, and electronics exporters benefiting from AI-driven data center demand in the United States. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reaffirmed that Mexico and Canada intend to negotiate jointly rather than accept separate bilateral terms dictated by Washington.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government is studying whether to expand purchases of US goods as a way to ease the trade imbalance with Mexico's largest commercial partner, a move that would directly respond to pressure from Washington ahead of the next round of talks on the USMCA. Sheinbaum said Mexican electronics exports have also picked up recently, benefiting from the AI boom and the wave of data center construction underway in the United States.

The president framed the potential shift as part of a broader review of how much value Mexican producers actually add to the goods the country ships north, alongside a fresh look at import patterns. That review, she said, will fall to the Ministry of Economy, which is weighing the possibility of directing more purchases toward US suppliers instead of other trade partners.

Responding to Washington's Deficit Complaints

Asked directly about the White House's repeated complaints over the bilateral trade imbalance, Sheinbaum acknowledged that the United States has made clear it wants to narrow its deficit with Mexico. She said Mexico remains focused on growing its own exports, but noted that President Trump has been explicit about wanting to shrink what Mexico sells into the US market through several channels, one of which is Mexico simply buying more from US suppliers rather than sourcing from elsewhere.

The comments land as trade data continues to show the imbalance Washington has objected to. Mexican merchandise exports to the United States reached US$298.2 billion in the first half of 2026, a 13% year-over-year increase that kept Mexico in position as the top US trading partner, while Mexican imports from the United States climbed 16.6% to US$195.6 billion, leaving Mexico with a US$102.6 billion surplus for the period, up 6.6% from a year earlier. That gap has narrowed at points this year: in January, the surplus fell to a 17-year low for that month as Mexican imports from the United States surged 13.1%, a shift analysts tied to manufacturers front-loading US-origin inputs to meet tightening USMCA rules of origin. Still, the full-year 2025 surplus hit a record US$196.9 billion, keeping the imbalance at the center of the review process.

Sheinbaum's remarks come as her government prepares for the fourth bilateral negotiating round of the USMCA joint review, scheduled for the first week of September in Washington. The talks have already worked through several sensitive areas, including rules of origin for industrial goods, agriculture, labor standards, steel and aluminum, and the automotive sector, with both governments describing steady, if incomplete, progress after three earlier rounds held between May and July.

Canada Signals It Will Not Bend to US Pressure

On the Canadian side of the trilateral relationship, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Mexico and Canada intend to preserve the USMCA but will not accept a deal shaped purely by US demands. Speaking at the annual gathering of Telmex-Telcel Foundation scholars, México Siglo XXI, in Mexico City, Trudeau said the two countries are working closely together and will maintain a firm, unified position to protect and expand the success all three North American economies have built under the pact.

Trudeau pointed back to the 2018 renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, USMCA's predecessor, as a model for that cooperation. He said Mexican and Canadian negotiators worked in close coordination during that process despite US efforts to negotiate bilaterally with each country separately, a dynamic he described as essential to reaching a deal that left all three parties better off. Trudeau's comments echo a concern that has resurfaced repeatedly during the current review: that Washington could try to split Mexico and Canada into separate bilateral tracks rather than negotiate as a trilateral bloc.

What's at Stake for Mexican Industry

The stakes are high for exporters and manufacturers that depend on preferential USMCA access. Mexico has managed to hold its position as the top source of US imports even as Washington applies a 35% tariff on non-compliant Canadian goods and a 25% tariff on Mexican goods that fail to meet rules-of-origin requirements, citing insufficient cooperation on fentanyl trafficking and migration. Separate US tariffs of 25% on light vehicles without qualifying US content, and 50% on steel, aluminum and copper from both neighbors, remain in place regardless of the review's outcome.

Should Mexico move to direct more of its import spending toward US suppliers, sectors likely to feel it first include manufacturers operating under the IMMEX program, companies that currently source components from Asian supply chains, and industries where Mexico has leaned on non-US suppliers for intermediate goods. Electronics exporters, meanwhile, stand to benefit from continued demand tied to US data center construction and AI infrastructure spending, a trend that gives Mexico leverage to argue its exports reflect genuine industrial integration with the US economy rather than a one-way imbalance.

With the fourth negotiating round approaching and the formal July 1 review deadline already passed without full resolution, the coming weeks are expected to determine whether Mexico's offer to buy more American goods becomes a durable policy shift or a negotiating gesture aimed at defusing pressure from the White House. Either way, the outcome will shape the rules governing hundreds of billions of dollars in annual trade between the three North American economies.