Mexico’s Exports Rise 5.8% in April Amid US Tariff Uncertainty

In April, Mexico’s exports of goods grew by 5.8% year-over-year, reaching US$54.3 billion, partly driven by increased demand as businesses anticipated potential US tariffs. Meanwhile, imports dropped 1.2% to US$54.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of US$88.1 million. Luis Adrián Muñiz, Analyst, Vector, suggested that the full impact of US tariffs on Mexican trade may not yet be visible. However, the drop in imports could indicate weaker exports in May.

According to INEGI, exports grew by 4% while imports rose just 1.3% in 1Q25, as companies reportedly accelerated shipments to the United States to get ahead of possible trade restrictions. The rise in exports was mainly fueled by a 6.6% increase in non-oil exports. Sales to the United States rose 5.7%, while shipments to other markets jumped 11.7%. Meanwhile, oil exports fell 13.2%.

According to Banco Base Analysts Gabriela Siller and Jesús Anacarsis López, the export surge is closely tied to global demand for Mexican goods amid uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. April also saw Mexico's manufactured goods exports climb 6.6% year-over-year to US$49 billion. Key growth areas included machinery and industrial equipment (+62.5%), household metal goods (+18.8%), scientific and professional gear (+18.5%), electrical and electronic devices (+6.4%), and mining and metallurgical products (+2.5%). However, automotive exports fell by 7.1%, with sales to the United States dropping 8%.

At the same time, signs of a potential economic slowdown are emerging. IMEF warns that Mexico’s economy could contract in 2Q25, impacted by trade tensions, political uncertainty, and the ongoing judicial reform. Oil exports totaled US$1.83 billion in April, with the average price of Mexican crude at US$60.82/b, nearly US$5 lower than in March and US$16 below April 2024. Crude exports averaged 693Mb/d, down from March levels but nearly unchanged from the previous year.