Mexico’s Trade Surplus With the United States Hits Record High

From January to July, Mexico’s trade surplus with the United States rose 17.4% year-on-year, reaching a record US$112.6 billion, according to US Census Bureau data. During this period, Mexican exports to the United States grew 6.5% to $309.7 billion, while US exports to Mexico edged up 1.1% to US$197.2 billion.

In July alone, Mexico’s shipments to the United States accelerated, climbing 8.2% year-on-year to US$45.4 billion. This followed a 2.7% decline in April, a 5.6% increase in May, and a 6.3% rise in June. The strongest pace so far this year was in March, when exports surged 15.4%. That spike reflected front-loaded purchases before US authorities began applying a 25% tariff on Mexican goods not meeting USMCA rules of origin, effective March 7.

By contrast, Mexico’s main competitors saw declines in exports to the United States in July: Canada’s exports fell 10.4% to US$32.2 billion and China’s dropped 35.3% to US$26.4 billion. Imports from the United States into Mexico grew 1.0% to US$29.0 billion, while US exports to Canada fell 6.1% to US$26.1 billion and to China dropped 13.7% to US$9.3 billion. Mexico thus became the largest destination for US goods in July, nearly matching Canada in cumulative exports over the first seven months and is poised to surpass it as retaliatory Canadian tariffs against the United States remain in effect.

Overall, US imports from the world reached US$292.2 billion in July, up 1.4% year-on-year, while exports rose 4.9% to US$175.1 billion. No major new tariffs were applied that month, though the impact of reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%, introduced on Aug. 7, remains to be seen.

Mexico’s main exports to the United States include automobiles, freight vehicles, auto parts, computers, wiring harnesses, and medical devices. On the other hand, US exports to Mexico consist mainly of refined oil products (excluding crude), natural gas, auto parts, corn, vehicles, and electric batteries.

By July, cumulative Canadian and Chinese exports to the United States had fallen 4.4% and 18.9%, respectively, to US$230.4 billion and US$193.9 billion. Meanwhile, US global imports rose 11% to nearly US$2 trillion.

Mexico consolidated its position as the United States’ top trading partner in the first seven months of 2025, accounting for 15.3% of total US trade, ahead of Canada (13.0%) and China (7.8%). The US global goods trade deficit widened 22% to US$806.5 billion, while the deficit with Mexico rose 17.7% to US$112.6 billion.