Peso Under Pressure, Sheinbaum Delays Tariff Decision

The peso could weaken to 17.92 per US dollar in 2H26 amid trade uncertainty, Citi survey shows. In addition, Sheinbaum withholds Mexico's response to a proposed 10% US tariff until the Economy Ministry argues its case, as Greer arrives for USMCA talks.

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Mexico's Peso Faces 2H26 Pressure, Citi Forecasts

The Mexican peso could weaken to MX$17.92 per US$1.00 in 2H26 as USMCA annual reviews, protectionist tariff risks, and a narrowing 275-basis-point interest rate differential between Banxico and the US Federal Reserve weigh on investor sentiment. Despite these headwinds, the currency’s outlook remains supported by fiscal consolidation, a modest 1.0%–1.2% GDP growth forecast, and the resilience of the US economy, which accounts for more than 80% of Mexico’s exports.

IIF Warns Mexico Is Drifting Back Toward Pre-Pandemic Stagnation

Weak capital formation is shaving at least half a percentage point off Mexico's potential growth, and the gap is widening because policy has not moved to close it, according to the Institute of International Finance. In a special analysis titled "Mexico: Rising Stagnation Risks amid USMCA Uncertainty," the Washington-based body warned that without reforms capable of attracting investment, the economy risks settling back into the low-growth path it occupied before COVID-19.

Forced-Labor Tariffs on 60 Economies Land This Week, Greer Says

Mexico is days away from learning whether it will carry a new US tariff layer tied to forced labor enforcement. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC that Washington will publish final determinations covering roughly 60 economies within days, closing an investigation that has named Mexico alongside the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom.

Mexico Bets on the First-Round Precedent to Dodge New Tariffs

Mexico will not answer Washington's proposed 10% tariff until it has presented its arguments through the formal channel, President Claudia Sheinbaum said, confirming that she will receive US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at the National Palace on July 23.

Mexico Clears Environmental, Security Hurdles Before USMCA Round

Mexico enters the third bilateral round of the USMCA Joint Review carrying a set of goodwill measures already in hand. This week, negotiating teams will spend three days in Mexico City working through steel and aluminum, automobiles, economic security, labor, agriculture, and electronic payment services. 

Sheinbaum Uses World Cup Final to Press USMCA Talks

President Claudia Sheinbaum used the 2026 World Cup final to briefly discuss the USMCA review with Donald Trump and Mark Carney, as a new round of trilateral trade talks opened in Mexico City and she prepared to host US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Washington's new 50% tariff on Canadian goods, applied even to treaty-compliant products, adds pressure as Mexico pushes to eliminate levies on rules-of-origin-compliant exports.

US Lawmakers Push to Tie Water Treaty Compliance to USMCA Review

US lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to use the USMCA review as leverage to secure Mexico’s compliance with the 1944 Water Treaty. While no formal proposal has been made to include water obligations in the agreement, the move signals that bilateral water disputes could become part of broader North American trade negotiations.

Trump's 50% Tariff on Canada Deepens North American Trade Rift

Washington has sharply escalated its trade fight with Ottawa. President Donald Trump has ordered a 50% duty on a wide range of Canadian imports, a measure he framed as payback for what he described as lopsided treatment of American cars, dairy and spirits. For Mexico, the timing is pointed: the decision lands in the middle of the trilateral trade review that will define North American commerce for the coming decade.