Trump Presses Mexico After First Water Treaty Proposal Rejected

Donald Trump has once again publicly pressed Mexico amid bilateral negotiations regarding compliance with the 1944 Water Treaty. However, the first proposal presented by Mexico was not accepted by the United States. Through his social media platform Truth Social, Trump declared: “Mexico must take care of its water and sewage problem, IMMEDIATELY. It is a true threat to the people of Texas, California, and the United States of America!”

The post included a video showing untreated sewage from Tijuana flowing into the river of the same name. “Mexico continues to send millions of gallons of raw water,” the video claims, attributing the issue to operational failures at the city’s main treatment plant.

Earlier in 2024, former US Ambassador Ken Salazar and Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar laid the groundwork for a new water treatment plant, which was placed under the supervision of Mexico’s Ministry of National Defense. Since 2022, the International Boundary and Water Commission agreed to invest roughly US$500 million on both sides of the border to address the problem.

Since Dec. 9, technical and diplomatic teams from both countries have held emergency meetings to resolve Mexico’s water obligations under the 1944 Treaty, particularly the United States demand that 200,000 acre-feet be delivered by Dec.31, under the threat of a 5% tariff if unmet. A first Mexican proposal was rejected, and the United States submitted a counterproposal, which was discussed on the morning of Dec. 10. As of press time, no agreement had been reached.

Concerns Over Bilateral Tensions

Eduardo Vázquez, Director, Agua Capital, and Raúl Rodríguez Márquez, President, Water Advisory Council, warned that Mexico faces a critical combination of backlogs in fulfilling the 1944 Treaty, underutilized infrastructure, drought, and institutional weakness relative to the United States. Together, these factors increase the risk of bilateral tensions and internal conflicts.

They also cautioned that Trump may be using pressure over Mexico’s water obligations as leverage to renegotiate USMCA, a scenario they described as “extremely risky” for Mexico.  “Maybe it is not even really about the treaty (…) it is probably commercial issues, not ‘trading.’ But he has it at hand and can use it,” Vázquez said.

Vázquez emphasized that Mexico’s water debt is the result of poor planning and inefficiency, not violations of the treaty. Jorge Arriaga, Coordinator, UNAM’s Water Network, noted that Mexico is capable of fulfilling its obligations, but the ongoing megadrought in northern Mexico and the United States complicates compliance.

Rodríguez stressed that solutions require cooperation with the agricultural sector, similar to 2020 when 400 million m3 were transferred through agreements with farmers. He also noted that under the treaty, Mexico is obligated to deliver “one-third of the Rio Bravo water,” which remains insufficient for certain US stakeholders.

Sheinbaum Reaffirms Mexico’s Commitment to Water Treaty

Despite uncertainty, President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that Mexican and US teams remain in negotiations to ensure compliance with water deliveries. “The treaty is very clear in stating that if there were five years of drought, the water not delivered must be replenished in the following five years,” Sheinbaum said, reaffirming that Mexico is adhering to the international agreement.

She added that the federal government is working with border states to ensure that any commitments to the United States do not negatively affect agricultural producers or water supplies for human consumption.