Trump Privately Questions USMCA Future Ahead of 2026 Review

US President Donald Trump is privately questioning the future of USMCA with his advisors. While no formal decision has been made, anonymous White House sources stress that Trump is assessing the potential departure of the United States from the trilateral agreement. 

This internal debate adds significant pressure to the upcoming mandatory joint review scheduled for July 1, 2026. A White House official noted that Trump is focused on securing better terms for the United States, while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that automatically approving the 2019 terms is not in the US’ interest. 

Trump’s administration intends to keep withdrawal as an open option to address specific trade issues. Greer also indicated that the United States will likely pursue bilateral negotiations, noting that while conversations with Mexico have been pragmatic, the relationship with Canada is currently more complex.

The USMCA requires all three nations to confirm an extension in writing by the July 2026 deadline to secure the pact for another 16 years. If they fail to agree, the agreement enters a period of mandatory annual reviews for 10 years until its potential expiration in 2036. Under the current treaty, any country can announce its intent to withdraw with six months' notice.

Implications of a US Withdrawal from USMCA

A US exit would disrupt a trade relationship valued at approximately US$2 trillion, reports the Financial Post. President Trump has already utilized economic threats to gain leverage, including a potential 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada signs a trade deal with China and a 50% tax on certain Canadian aircraft. While the threat of withdrawal would immediately expose Mexican and Canadian exports to higher tariffs, some analysts believe the move is a tactical tool to force concessions on rules of origin, labor protections, and migration before the 2026 deadline.

Business experts consider the possibility of a US exit from the USMCA unlikely, as North American supply chains are tightly interconnected, especially in sectors such as the automotive sector, where components for the creation of an automobile cross the border multiple times before delivering the final product. 

During a year-end trade recount organized by the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (COMCE), Kenneth Smith, President of the Bilateral Committee, COMCE, noted that over 75% of experts consulted by the US government support keeping USMCA in force. During the process, which included 150 in-person participants and 1,530 letters, only 2% opposed the treaty. Smith argued that a full termination is unlikely because Mexico is indispensable for the United States to remain competitive against China.

Uncertain Environment: Hidden Opportunity for Mexico

Antonio Ortiz, President of the Technical Committee Mexico-USMCA, COMCE, emphasized that maintaining zero tariffs is insufficient if the US continues to invoke Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act or Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act based on alleged national security threats or economic emergencies.

Ortiz explained that through the certainty achieved by USMCA, Mexico could have a strong competitive advantage in what he described as the new international disorder, where the United States and other nations are increasingly bypassing WTO rules by negotiating preferential agreements. In a landscape where multilateral rules are being ignored, Mexico's preferential access through USMCA offers a level of security that other nations lack. "I believe that, in fact, Mexico can be a great winner within this international disorder. Paradoxically, we can come out not just well, but very well," he stated.