Air Travel to Recover if Vaccination Continues: Bain & Company

Australia, Brazil and Mexico recorded the largest increases in air passenger volume this July and the trend is expected to continue if the current vaccination process is accelerated. At the current rate, the total air passenger traffic in Mexico in July 2022 will be 89 percent higher than in July 2019, said consulting firm Bain & Company. This is 5 percent higher than its previous forecast. 

According to Bain & Company’s “Air Travel Forecast,” the global outlook has worsened due to the COVID-19 Delta variant’s rapid spread, particularly in Asia. But air traffic is picking up in the EU and the US. Considering these circumstances, the firm adjusted its “baseline” scenario to US$255 billion, 38 percent of the industry’s total revenue in 2019. This is US$24 billion less than its previous projection. “Whereas, the recovery of world air demand would reach 83.08 percent by December 2022 and 92.18 percent by December 2023 (vs. 2019 figures) if current conditions persist, with accelerated vaccination, a recovery above 90 percent could occur in August 2022,” stated by Bain & Company. 

However, Australia, Brazil and Mexico are showing positive growth and setting new precedents. Mexico, specifically, had an 84 percent volume recovery in May and in August this figure increased to 89 percent. Previously MBN reported that Mexico is showing one of the fastest recoveries in capacity, being only 4.9 percent below its pre-pandemic levels. Also, Mexican low-cost airlines, like Volaris and Viva Aerobus, have reported growth during recent months. “We will not have the volumes of before, but we will have a greater demand. For this, it is necessary that the authorities and organizations agree to establish the health rules and protocols when traveling. In addition, the industrial sector needs to be technologically prepared to attend to future opportunities,” said Luis Lizcano, Executive President of FEMIA, to Global Industries. 

Globally, the countries with the lowest passenger levels have been India (60 percent), Indonesia (86 percent) and South Africa (71 percent), reports Bain & Company. Regarding the global recovery as a whole, OAG  reported that global seat capacity in July 2021 was 356 million seats, which was 32 percent below the capacity seen in July 2019. Last week, August's capacity was still expected to exceed July’s, but this was not the case and August is now expected to see 1.7 percent fewer seats than July.