PEMEX Increases Production, but Also its Imports

PEMEX is foreseeing a significant increase of gasoline and diesel demand. Even though the NOC has incremented production, imports have also risen because local production does not suffice to cover national demand.

The NOC is anticipating that June 2022’s gasoline sales will grow in comparison to June 2021. According to PEMEX, this month it will have sold 810Mb/d of gasoline on average, which is 40.6 percent more than he same month last year, when 576Mb/d were sold. This would also represent the highest sales of this year so far.

For diesel, PEMEX expects sales to nearly double compared to June 2021, reaching 401Mb/d. Jet fuel sales would reach 84Mb/d, a 37.7 percent increase compared to June 2021.

The data shows that despite the NOC’s increased production of gasoline and diesel, the most demanded fuel products, their imports have also risen. From January to May of 2022, the company reported an average production of 288Mb/d of gasoline, 24.8 percent more year-over-year. Nonetheless, gasoline imports also rose: PEMEX brought an average of 368Mb/d from abroad, a 14.8 percent increase.

National sales of gasoline averaged 655.6Mb/d, which means that the NOC is still importing 55 percent of the product to fulfill national demand. Moreover, diesel production from January to May 2022 averaged the 160.2Mb/d, 39 percent more than the same period last year. Meanwhile, diesel imports stood at 126.3Mb/d, a 20.8 percent increase year-over-year.

The government’s quest to achieve energy sovereignty within the next few years has led to different strategies, among them the reinvigoration of the National Refining System (SNR) through the rehabilitation of the six working oil refineries in the country, in addition to the acquisition of the Deer Park refinery in January 2022 and the construction of Dos Bocas in Tabasco.

Mere weeks away from its July 2 inauguration date, the president announced that Dos Bocas will be ready to take on the next stage in its development. "It will be producing at full capacity by next year... The construction phase, without a doubt, will be finished this year,” said López Obrador before reiterating that Mexico is on track to stop the import of fuels by 2023. However, this promise of complete fuel self-reliance will depend greatly on the progress of Dos Bocas, which is set to account for 13 percent of the 2.6MMb/d refining output target.

Industry experts have claimed that 2024 is the more likely date for Dos Bocas to reach its full operational potential, citing the cost and complexity of the work still scheduled to take place. López Obrador and Minister of Energy Rocío Nahle have previously guaranteed that the refinery located in the southeastern state of Tabasco would reach its maximum capacity of 340Mb/d by 2023. Such a feat would be a major boon for the president’s goal of energy self-sufficiency by 2024, the year he leaves office.