Mexico Aerospace Sales Lag in 1H25 as Tariff Fears Weigh In

Mexico’s aerospace industry recorded a 9% year-over-year increase in total sales from January to June 2025, according to Luis Lizcano, director general, Mexican Federation of the Aerospace Industry (FEMIA). However, this growth lags behind the post-pandemic annual average of 13% to 16%.

“In the first half of the year, the result was a deceleration due to the uncertainty and disruption caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff measures,” Lizcano said in an interview with Milenio. Since June, the US government has imposed tariffs of 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Mexico. Additional tariffs on other goods are set to take effect on Aug. 1.

Currently, 80% of aerospace components manufactured in Mexico are exported to the United States. Canada accounts for 4.7% of exports, followed by France (3.5%) and Germany (3.2%). Companies such as Airbus, Safran, and Latécoère have established manufacturing operations in Mexico, attracted by competitive costs, skilled labor, and the country’s geographic proximity to US aircraft assemblers.

Mexico ranks fifth  globally in foreign direct investment in aerospace and is the 12th largest exporter of aerospace components. The industry supports more than 50,000 direct jobs and over 190,000 indirect jobs. Baja California leads national production with 14%, followed by Chihuahua (12%), Sonora (10%), Nuevo Leon (9%), Queretaro (8%), and Coahuila (3%). Each region has developed specialized capabilities—for example, engine parts in Sonora, complex components in Chihuahua, and advanced manufacturing in Nuevo Leon.

The sector experienced a 20% decline in exports during the COVID-19 pandemic but has averaged 14% annual growth over the last 15 years. According to market research firm Mordor Intelligence, the Mexican aerospace market was valued at US$11.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$22.7 billion by 2029, growing at an average annual rate of 15.2%.

Lizcano noted that if current US trade policies remain in place, the slowdown may continue through the second half of 2025,  though a contraction in total output is not anticipated. “We will stay alert to developments and assess what can be done to protect our position,” he said. FEMIA also participates in Mexico’s advisory team for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations.

Across the industry, rising tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are driving up costs and straining supply chains. US-based associations, including the Aerospace Industries Association and Airlines for America, have called on the US government to delay further tariffs, warning that higher costs could jeopardize aviation safety and supply chain resilience. Major manufacturers such as RTX and GE Aerospace anticipate a combined impact exceeding US$1 billion.