Climate Change Threatens Barley Supply

Barley production in Mexico has been severely impacted by drought caused by climate change, affecting both local and international markets, as Mexico stands among the top exporters of this grain. Experts warn that this phenomenon could lead to significant reductions in crop yields, potentially resulting in a global beer shortage.

The Mexican Altiplano is the country’s main barley-producing region, primarily supplying the brewing industry. This area produces an average of 481,000t annually, representing 93% of the nation’s total barley production. However, changing rainfall patterns in recent years have posed challenges for producers, who have experienced a decline in crop yields.

According to data from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), rainfall decreased from 769mm in 2021 to 743mm in 2022, and then to 589mm in 2023. In some states, the figures were even more dramatic. In Hidalgo, rainfall dropped from 623mm in 2021 to 413mm in 2023. These changes, coupled with higher temperatures, make it more difficult for the soil to retain moisture.

During the 2023 spring-summer agricultural cycle, 4,200ha out of the 102,000ha sown in the Altiplano were lost due to drought. Although 98,000ha were harvested, yields were lower than in previous years, averaging 1.78t/ha, compared to the typical 3.5t/ha in normal conditions over the last five years. This was insufficient to cover production costs, as the breakeven yield was estimated at 2.7t/ha, according to data from Mexico’s Agricultural and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP).

These changes are jeopardizing not only barley production but also the economic stability of the brewing industry. This is crucial to Mexico’s economy, as beer is the leading export product of the agro-industrial sector, accounting for 20% of foreign sales. The National Chamber of the Beer and Malt Industry reports that beer production contributes 1.6% to Mexico’s GDP, and the sector supports over 700,000 jobs across its value chain. 

Given this situation, experts stress the need for producers to adopt measures that enhance resilience to these changes, such as implementing new technologies, sustainable practices, and agricultural insurance. A key example of these efforts is the Cultivando un México Mejor program (Cultivating a Better Mexico), launched by CIMMYT and Heineken Mexico. Since 2018, this initiative has focused on conservation agriculture as a strategy to mitigate the impacts of drought.

One option is to use barley residue to optimize resources for future crops. Amador Aguillón, Manager of the Bajío Hub, CIMMYT, explains that this material serves as ground cover, which improves soil structure, acting like a sponge that retains moisture longer. Other agronomic practices include minimal soil tillage, crop rotation, optimizing fertilizer application, and disease monitoring.

Between 2018 and 2022, the program reported water savings of over 2.8 million m³, equivalent to a 20% reduction in water use. Barley yields also increased by 15%, and other added benefits included a 65% reduction in fossil fuel use during production. “We are achieving a return of soil fertility,” Aguillón emphasized.

In addition to these actions, developing farmers’ skills and providing ongoing technical support to identify optimal planting times is key, according to CIMMYT. Felipe Juarez, Project Member, CIMMYT, noted that adjusting planting and irrigation schedules is critical, as producers must learn to be more flexible with their planting cycles to adapt to new climate patterns. These adjustments, combined with sustainable farming practices, have led to yields up to 1t/ha higher than those with delayed planting schedules. Heineken’s goal is that by 2030, 100% of the barley used in their beers will be produced with sustainable farming practices.

Globally, experts predict that increasingly severe drought and heat may cause sharp declines in barley yields, potentially leading to a global beer shortage. According to the study Decreases in Global Beer Supply Due to Extreme Drought and Heat, published in the science journal Nature, average yield losses could range from 3% to 17%, depending on the severity of conditions. Consequently, global barley supply reductions could lead to significant regional decreases in beer consumption and higher prices.