Mexico Faces Faster Warming, Rising Climate Vulnerability

Mexico is experiencing accelerated warming compared to the global average, deepening the country’s vulnerability to climate change and its wide-ranging socioeconomic impacts. Experts call for urgent, integrated climate action to address growing risks across sectors like agriculture, housing, and social care.

Francisco Estrada, Head of the Climate Change Research Program, UNAM, stated that Mexico is experiencing warming at a faster rate than the global average. While global temperatures have increased by approximately 2°C per century since the pre-industrial era, in Mexico the rate is 3.2°C per century. In absolute terms, the country’s temperature has risen by 1.8°C as of 2024, highlighting significant climate vulnerability, Estrada said.

During the working sessions, titled Climate Change in Mexico: Trends, Risks, and Policies, held in preparation for the 2025 Summit of Presidents of Mexican Universities for Climate Action, Estrada noted that global temperatures have exceeded 1.5°C since 2023. “If we recall, the Paris Agreement states that this threshold should not be crossed. This means that within a five-year average, we will be at that proposed limit, something that was expected to happen much later,” he said.

The Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 Parties at COP21 in Paris in 2015 and was enforced on Nov. 4, 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. To meet this target, countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, aiming to achieve climate neutrality by mid-century.

However, we are now much closer to that limit than anticipated, putting the achievement of international climate goals at risk. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with a global average surface temperature of 1.55°C. This suggests that we have likely just experienced the first full calendar year with a global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This only underscores a broader trend, as the past 10 years, from 2015 to 2024, have been the warmest decade on record, as reported by WMO.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary General, WMO, emphasized that a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris Agreement has been broken. “The long-term temperature goal is measured over decades, not a single year. Still, every fraction of a degree matters; each increase in global temperature, whether below or above 1.5°C, brings greater impacts on our lives, economies and the planet,” she said.

Estrada highlighted that the effects of climate change are already being felt in key sectors such as agriculture. He recalled that back in 2006, he and his research team estimated a 24% loss in coffee production in Veracruz by 2020 due to climate changes. Today, that figure stands at approximately 48%, revealing the severity of the consequences.

Enrique Provencio, Head of the University Program on Development Studies, UNAM, said that climate action must be integrated as a core component of Mexico’s development strategy in the coming decades. He stressed the need to place it at the highest level of public policy, align it with international commitments, and provide it with the necessary political backing and budgetary support.

Naxhelli Ruiz, Head of the University Seminar on Socio-Environmental Risks, Institute of Geography (IGg), said that social climate threats must be linked to social rights. She pointed out that in Mexico, 22.5 million people are caregivers, while 38 million depend on care. Of those receiving care, 80% are children and adolescents, 10% are elderly, and another 10% are people living with disabilities.

In addition, 35.3 million occupied private homes face serious quality deficiencies. A quarter of these homes are over 30 years old; 44% have issues such as humidity or foundation leaks, problems present in all the country’s coastal states. Ruiz emphasized that one missing element in national statistics is the condition of urban environments: the structures and opportunities that enable development. “For example, in the case of Hurricane Otis, 296,000 children and adolescents were affected. They faced issues such as sexual exploitation, school dropout, disease, lack of medical care, or malnutrition. This is the face of social risk,” she said.