Guanajuato Auto Parts Exports at US$23 Billion Despite 3Q25 Drop

Guanajuato’s automotive supply chain is expected to close 2025 with US$23 billion in auto parts exports, even as official data show a sharp contraction in transportation equipment exports during the third quarter of the year. Industry leaders and government statistics point to a year of consolidation rather than growth, shaped by external pressures, cost volatility and a transition toward higher value-added manufacturing.

“US$23 billion and production above 800,000 vehicles. We see an important consolidation of Toyota and General Motors in the state, and we see several companies aligned with the shift toward new technologies,” said in an interview with Milenio Alfredo Arzola, Director, Guanajuato Automotive Cluster.

According to Arzola, the lack of growth in export value reflects the broader economic environment rather than a loss of industrial capacity. He noted that complex global conditions, including cost rotations, geopolitical tensions and trade pressures from the United States, have limited short-term expansion. “This amount was reported last year, so no growth is expected due to the complex economic situations we are going through,” he said.

Despite these constraints, Arzola argued that the pressures facing the sector will accelerate structural changes within Mexico’s automotive industry. He said companies are being pushed to adopt more advanced technologies and improve efficiency, with results expected to materialize in 2026 rather than immediately. “These pressures will push the sector in the country to implement new technologies and to be better, and this will be reflected in 2026,” he said.

He added that firms operating in Guanajuato are already adjusting their strategies. “We are going to see how companies grow that added value, more technology, more added value in their processes, and therefore greater regional and social development. This process will be seen in the pressures from wars and cost rotations. It is a positive issue in the sense that we are seeing indicators we had not seen before. As these variables are defined, we will have a positive impact trigger at the beginning of next year,” Arzola said.

On the production side, Arzola said the state expects to exceed the 800,000 vehicles produced in 2024, supported by continued operations from major OEMs and their supplier networks. He said Guanajuato should remain a leading hub for both vehicle assembly and auto parts manufacturing, and that new investment announcements are still anticipated. 

These industry expectations contrast with recent data released by INEGI, which reported a 17.6% drop in transportation equipment exports from Guanajuato during the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024. The value of exports in this category fell from US$6.45 billion in the third quarter of 2024 to US$5.32 billion in 2025.

INEGI defines transportation equipment exports as including the manufacture of automobiles and trucks, bodies and trailers, motor vehicle parts, and aerospace equipment, among other products. The decline represents the steepest contraction among Mexico’s main exporting states in this subsector during the period.

Even with the decrease, Guanajuato maintained its position as the second-largest exporter of transportation equipment nationwide. Coahuila ranked first with US$11.67 billion, followed by Guanajuato. San Luis Potosi placed third with US$4.56 billion, Chihuahua fourth with US$4.45 billion, and Nuevo Leon fifth with US$4.44 billion.

In percentage terms, Guanajuato recorded the largest year-over-year decline. Chihuahua reported a 2.4% decrease, Coahuila 2.8%, and Nuevo Leon 13.4%, according to INEGI data.