PACIC-Tracked Product Prices Rebound in Early March

After experiencing three consecutive biweekly declines, prices of products monitored by the Inflation and Scarcity Counteraction Package (PACIC) rebounded in the first half of March, increasing by 0.31% compared to the previous period.

The biweekly inflation of 0.31% in the PACIC was driven by increases in 15 out of 24 products in the basic basket. The most significant increase was observed in whole chicken, with a rise of 5.92%, marking the sharpest increase in almost four years. The primary contributors to this upturn were chicken, lemons, and oranges, which experienced notable price fluctuations.

Other increases were recorded in lemons (5.01%), oranges (3.04%), tomatoes (3%), toilet soap (0.82%), potatoes (0.76%), rice (0.65%), sugar (0.43%), and apples (0.29%). In contrast, the most significant decreases were seen in onions (16.04%), carrots (1.96%), beans (0.78%), toilet paper (0.55%), and eggs (0.47%).

Analysts suggest that new upward pressures cannot be ruled out in the coming months, primarily in agricultural products, because of high levels of drought in some crops.

On an annual basis, PACIC inflation, calculated using weights from the consumer price index of INEGI, stood at 4.41% in the first half of March, higher than the previous result. Internally, 18 products showed increases, with onions standing out with a rate of 136.64%, marking three months of double-digit variations.

The first round of incentives for this package, which aims to stabilize or lower prices for 24 basic basket products, began in May 2022, with three different versions currently in place. Compared to the announcement of the first version of the plan, there has been a cumulative inflation of 13.37%, with 15 biweekly periods exceeding a 10% rate, demonstrating that the expected effects are still insufficient to ease pressure on consumers' wallets.

According to private sector estimates, the cost of the PACIC's 24 basic basket products is expected to remain at MX$1,039 in self-service stores at least during the first half of 2024.