Dos Bocas Receives Less Than 5% of Its Capacity for Refining

Reuters reported that the Olmeca refinery is receiving 16.3Mb/d of crude, which is less than 5% of its refining capacity. Despite the president’s efforts to reduce dependence on imported fuels, according to data revised by Reuters, in August, the refinery is scheduled to receive 170Mb/d, which is still only half of the plant's 340Mb/d capacity.

The Olmeca refinery, inaugurated in July 2022, was initially projected to operate at half capacity by July 2023 and to reach full capacity within the same year. However, multiple deadlines have not been met. PEMEX recently announced that it would process only 177Mb/d this year, with plans to reach full capacity in 2025.

This slow ramp-up means Mexico will continue to rely on imports of refined fuels and will not significantly reduce its exports of heavy crude oil, contrary to earlier projections. This continued export is essential to alleviate global supply constraints, especially as major Middle East producers adhere to OPEC+ export reduction commitments.

In a recent earnings call, PEMEX officials stated that the refinery would begin producing diesel later this month, followed by gasoline. However, they did not disclose specific processing rates or targets. PEMEX has also not publicly shared how much crude oil the refinery has received to date.

The crude sent to the refinery this week represents less than 1% of the 1.8MMb/d that PEMEX currently produces. Sources familiar with the internal data indicated that the crude oil processed was for one line only, with no clear timeline for when additional lines will be operational.

According to Reuters, there have been concerns about the government's portrayal of the refinery's progress. Two sources suggested that the small volume processed was exaggerated ahead of the June 2 election, where Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from Lopez Obrador's MORENA party, holds a strong lead in polls.