Government Monitors Gasoline Prices as Cap Pressures Market

Gasoline prices in Mexico returned to the spotlight during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press conference, as the Federal Consumer Protection Agency (PROFECO) presented its weekly update of the program known as Who Is Who in Prices. According to Iván Escalante, a representative of the agency, the national average price for regular gasoline stood at MX$23.59/L (US$1.28/L), with no stations reporting profit margins above MX$2/L under normal market conditions.

However, not all stations are adhering to these parameters. The agency highlighted cases of retailers that continue to sell above the national average without a clear operational justification. One of the most notable cases was an OXXO Gas station in Morelia, Michoacan, selling regular gasoline at MX$24.99/L, which is well above the national average. In the regional breakdown, a Petro Seven station in Saltillo, Coahuila, was reported with a profit margin of MX$3.38/L. The agency described these practices as violations of the intent of the current price cap agreement and marked the station with a negative assessment during the conference.

Public price monitoring is gaining relevance in a context where Mexico continues to face challenges related to fuel theft, widely known as huachicol. Pressures on certain distributors arising from regulatory and commercial changes can increase incentives for illicit practices in some regions. Industry specialists have warned that any imbalance in price structures, particularly when it undermines the profitability of small or independent retailers, can heighten the risk of operators turning to irregular fuel sources.

The federal government argues that the price cap is a temporary measure meant to avoid inflationary pressures. The agreement, initially signed on Feb. 27, 2025, was extended in September by President Sheinbaum and business representatives. Its validity now extends through November 2025 and is subject to review at the end of the month, coinciding with discussions regarding the fiscal package and a possible adjustment to the Special Tax on Production and Services applied to fuels.

The official document for the agreement establishes that PEMEX must offer a uniform national wholesale price at its storage and distribution terminals in order to facilitate compliance with the capped retail price. This means that the state-owned oil company must absorb part of the commercial adjustment so that its franchisees and clients can continue selling gasoline at the price cap without compromising profitability. The obligation adds to PEMEX’s financial challenges, especially given the sustained losses in its refining division in recent years.

Private fuel retailers will not receive an equivalent benefit, a point that has raised concern among independent operators and smaller groups of stations. Executives in the sector argue that the policy creates an uneven competitive landscape because it limits their ability to reflect real operating costs in the final consumer price. According to Bloomberg Línea, private operators are waiting for more regulatory clarity because the agreement, combined with potential tax changes, may affect their commercial viability unless margin criteria are reviewed.

The performance of the retail fuel market will remain a central element of Mexico’s energy policy, especially as the government seeks to stabilize prices without distorting competition or encouraging illegal activity. Oversight from the consumer protection agency, adjustments in PEMEX’s commercial strategy, and the design of a sustainable fiscal structure will be key factors in maintaining a functional fuel market while the debate continues on how to balance consumer protection with the financial health of the gasoline sector.