Mexico’s Gas Plan Seeks to Align Demand With Infrastructure

Mexico’s national energy plan sets ambitious goals to expand domestic gas production and reduce import dependence. Yet as the country’s industrial base grows and demand for reliable electricity climbs, the question remains whether the pace of infrastructure development can keep up. The intersection of energy planning, gas availability, and industrial competitiveness will define Mexico’s ability to attract investment in the decade ahead.

Natural gas sits at the heart of the challenge. Around 60% of Mexico’s electricity is generated with the fuel, while combined-cycle plants have become the backbone of the system. Over the past 25 years, this shift has allowed the country to double power generation without significantly increasing sector emissions, replacing heavier fuels with cleaner-burning gas. But even today, nearly 70% of Mexico’s natural gas comes from the United States, making the country vulnerable to market dynamics and pipeline bottlenecks north of the border.

PEMEX’s 2025–2035 Strategic Plan acknowledges the urgency. It calls for boosting national production from 3.5Bcf/d to over 5Bcf/d by the early 2030s, with projects in Ixachi, Quesqui, Lakach, Burgos, and Veracruz, as well as deepwater fields like Cratos and Piklis. The company also plans to leverage rights of way for new pipelines: the Interoceánico line to Salina Cruz, the Conexión Maya to Yucatan, and Coatzacoalcos II to serve petrochemical hubs. These projects are meant to anchor industrial corridors and integrate with broader initiatives like the Interoceanic Corridor.

Yet, many in the sector question the realism of PEMEX’s targets. “The plan recognizes the critical importance of natural gas, but its alignment is only partial with real industrial growth needs,” said Fernando Cruz, Energy Director, Kannbal Consulting. “Most experts consider PEMEX’s production goals optimistic. Pipeline expansion has planning, but execution remains uncertain, making it very unlikely that we will end import dependence this decade.”

Cruz also underlined that the central challenge is not simply resources, but governance. “The most significant challenge is regulatory uncertainty and a policy that favors state-owned enterprises, combined with the limitations in transport and storage infrastructure,” he said. “The industry requires more legal certainty and transparent mechanisms to support public-private partnerships. Otherwise, the scale of investment and long-term contracts needed for gas will carry risks that outweigh the expected benefits.”

Industrial users feel the strain. Rising demand, constrained supply, and limited transmission have already driven up market costs. According to Acclaim Energy’s María José Treviño, capacity hedging prices jumped 300% between 2023 and 2024. “A data center with a 40MW constant power requirement cannot tolerate operating in a region experiencing frequent blackouts,” she warned, adding that Mexico risks losing billion-dollar investments if guaranteed megawatts cannot be secured. In today’s business landscape, she argued, the delivery of reliable energy has become as important as land and labor availability.

For generators, the situation reflects deeper market mismatches. Jonathan Pinzón, Senior VP of External Affairs and Business Development, Valia Energía, noted that while Mexico benefits from access to the world’s cheapest gas, its electricity market operates on cost-based dispatch that does not always align with the dynamics of the US gas market. “It is not so much a matter of shortage but of managing two interrelated, yet differently structured markets,” he said. His company operates six combined-cycle and one open-cycle plant, all dependent on natural gas. Three can switch to diesel, which Valia stores onsite for emergencies, highlighting the fragility of supply.

Beyond domestic planning, think tanks emphasize the importance of regional cooperation. The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) has called for a trinational task force to map critical energy infrastructure across North America, finance new pipelines and interconnections, and ensure secure access to natural gas for industrial hubs. Its recommendations include expanding pipeline capacity to underserved states like Guerrero, Chiapas and Oaxaca, developing storage to reach at least five days of national inventories by 2030, and reviving the Nogales-Tucson power interconnection. Such measures would not only strengthen reliability but also position Mexico as part of a regional semiconductor corridor amid US-China competition.

At its core, the debate underscores a strategic paradox. Mexico has access to abundant and cheap gas from the Permian Basin, yet limited storage, transport, and regulatory clarity prevent the country from fully capitalizing on this advantage to develop more resilient national production and transportation infrastructure. The government’s energy plan sets a direction, strengthens PEMEX, expands pipelines, reduces import dependency, but the industrial sector demands more certainty, investment-friendly mechanisms and transparent partnerships to secure reliable supply.

The stakes extend well beyond energy. If gas infrastructure lags behind industrial growth, the risk is not just higher costs but lost opportunities in advanced manufacturing, data centers, and export-driven industries. For Mexico to realize its economic potential, experts agree that its energy planning must move in tandem with infrastructure development, balancing sovereignty goals with the practical needs of industry. As demand rises through the 2030s, natural gas will remain central, not just to keep the lights on, but to determine whether Mexico can translate its geographic advantages into sustained industrial competitiveness.