SENER Forecasts 45% Oil Production Increase by 2030

The Ministry of Energy (SENER) projects a significant rebound in Mexico's oil production by 2030, with 2.390MMb/d representing a 44.6% increase against 2023 levels. This would put oil production at its highest level since 2014.

The forecast accounts for the incorporation of unconventional resources such as shale, with extraction slated to commence in 2025. Deepwater resources are expected to contribute to production starting in 2028, primarily through ongoing projects like Trion. Nonetheless, SENER does not anticipate the reactivation of oil rounds, a notable aspect given Mexico's previous reliance on such initiatives for production growth.

Regarding shale resources, SENER acknowledges the need for technological advancements to mitigate environmental impacts, with projects scheduled to begin in 2025. Similarly, deepwater projects are anticipated to enhance production, with a projected increase in participation to 7.9% by 2037.

However, after reaching peak production of 2.390MMb/d in 2030, SENER predicts a subsequent decline, estimating a volume of 2.037MMb/d by 2037. This decline underscores the challenges and uncertainties inherent to long-term oil production forecasts.

According to El Economista, Andrés Manuel López Obrador initially forecasted crude oil production of 2.6MMb/d by the end of his term, but has since revised it down to 2MMb/d. This adjustment is attributed to a shift in focus toward extracting crude oil for domestic refining needs. Last year, crude oil production saw a slight uptick of 1.9% compared to 2022, but a significant decrease of 8.7% compared to 2018, the final year of the previous administration. To achieve the revised production goals, collaboration between PEMEX and private entities through production contracts obtained in bidding rounds will be crucial, as indicated by both government and private sector reports, explains El Economista.