Mexican Airlines See Uncertainty as US Traffic Declines

The political landscape in the United States presents a mixed outlook for Mexican airlines, according to industry experts. 

François Duflot, Bloomberg analyst, highlighted the risks posed by US President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly in terms of protectionist policies and stricter immigration laws. However, he also pointed to opportunities for Mexican airlines to expand in the United States market, as Mexico’s airline fleet is expected to grow significantly by 2026.

“The ongoing deportations may further impact visits by friends and family,” Duflot explained, adding that there has been a noticeable decline in the number of Mexican travelers to the United States and vice versa. This trend, he noted, is compounded by shifting booking patterns, as ticket prices remain attractive at shorter lead times.

"It used to be common to book tickets seven or eight months in advance for good prices, but now we see those discounts just three weeks or a month ahead," said Fabricio Cojuc, an aviation consultant who also participated in the webinar.

Despite these risks, Duflot urged Mexican airlines to strengthen their presence in the US market. “Mexican airlines should integrate more into the US market, despite political threats and tariffs, to increase their dollar-denominated revenues and mitigate peso volatility,” he said.

Regarding fleet growth, experts noted that by the end of 2026, Mexico’s commercial fleet is projected to reach nearly 500 aircraft, a 20% increase from 2024. This expansion is considered essential for airlines to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in demand for Mexico-US flights. In 2024, major Mexican airlines—including Aeroméxico, Viva, Mexicana, and Volaris—are expected to receive 39 new aircraft, with deliveries increasing to 42 by 2026.

However, Mexican air traffic to the United States is on a downward trend. The International Trade Administration (ITA) reported that in the first two months of 2025, the number of Mexican travelers arriving in the United States by air declined by 4.6%, compared to the same period in 2024. ITA data shows that only 896,532 Mexican travelers flew to the United States in early 2025, down from 939,274 in 2024. 

"Donald Trump’s policies are directly affecting  travel behavior," said Jorge Hernández, President, Mexican Federation of Tourist Associations (FEMATUR). He noted that after discussions with Mexican airlines, there is growing concern about shifting travel patterns to the United States.

Tourism Economics, an organization affiliated with the University of Oxford, projected a 5% decline in international visitors due to the political climate, potentially resulting in a US$64 billion annual loss. European agencies have already reported declining interest in travel to the United States, with many tourists opting for alternative destinations such as Canada or Europe.