Drought, Demand Drive Sharp Rise in Mandarin Orange Prices

In the 2025 autumn–winter season, mandarin orange prices have risen more than 20% compared to last year. Key drivers include scarce rainfall, rising production costs, competitive pressures, transportation challenges, and strong seasonal demand.

According to data from the Federal Consumer Protection Agency (PROFECO), in Mexico City the kilogram of mandarins averages around MX$55 in local markets, and approaches MX$65 in supermarkets. Moreover, in states with limited local supply, such as Chiapas, prices can reach up to MX$120/kg when the fruit must be transported from other regions. Compared with 2024, the price increase now exceeds 20%.

On the other hand, monitoring found the lowest prices for this citrus fruit in the city of Oaxaca and the port of Veracruz, where it is sold at MX$30/kg, and similarly in Leon, Guanajuato, at around MX$35/kg. These reduced prices are mainly due to the proximity to producing regions, which lowers transportation costs.

The rise in mandarin prices is the result of several converging factors. Nationally, Veracruz, Puebla, and Nuevo Leon are the main producers of the fruit, harvested between October and December. During 2H25, these regions faced extremely challenging weather conditions, including prolonged droughts and irregular rainfall that affected blossom development and fruit quality.

Insufficient water at critical stages of the growing cycle means fewer mandarins per tree. Furthermore, heavy, concentrated rains later in the season cause additional losses due to fruit drop and complicate harvesting. The result is a season with less marketable production just before the months of highest consumption. Added to this are higher costs throughout the entire supply chain. Producers and vendors report increases in fuel, agricultural inputs, packaging materials, and services related to fruit handling and transport.

Competition from imported products, such as Peruvian mandarins, is also a major factor. Ramón Gómez, Leader, Business, Commercial, and Tourism Council (CECOTUR), explained that this type of mandarin has attracted strong consumer interest due to its color, size, and flavor, qualities that clearly set it apart from the domestic crop.

According to the business representative, Peruvian mandarins surpass Mexican ones in appearance and flavor. By comparison, the local fruit often looks smaller, greener, and less visually appealing. The imported product arrives mainly at wholesale distribution centers, from which it is shipped across various states and municipalities, increasing its presence at major points of sale.

Peruvian mandarins are generally offered at around MX$100/kg. Despite the higher price, Gómez noted that consumers are willing to pay more for a product that offers better quality, longer shelf life, and superior taste.

Finally, mandarin demand increases significantly between October and December due to its traditional use during holidays such as Day of the Dead and Christmas. This surge in purchases, combined with lower supply, also contributes to higher prices. In this context, vendors say they have tried to keep prices as low as possible to avoid losing customers, even though their own suppliers have raised their rates.

In Colima, sellers at the Obregón Market report that with the rising cost of the fruit, they sometimes earn only a 10–15% profit margin. “It is almost embarrassing to say the price because sometimes it really is very high,” they stated. They also point out that although mandarins remain a high-demand product, consumers are no longer buying them in the same quantities as in previous years. “It is not like before. In the past, people put mandarins and tejocotes in piñatas; not anymore. Now people only buy what they need to eat,” they warned.

Despite the elevated prices, mandarins remain one of the most popular seasonal fruits among Mexican consumers thanks to their pleasant taste, versatility, and numerous nutritional benefits. These include vitamin C, which boosts the immune system; antioxidants, which help reduce oxidative damage; dietary fiber, which supports digestion and helps regulate blood sugar; and minerals such as potassium, essential for cardiovascular health, and magnesium, linked to muscle and nerve function.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER) emphasizes that, in culinary terms, mandarins can be consumed fresh on their own or in salads; used in juices and smoothies; made into jams and preserves to enjoy their flavor year-round; and even used as tea by steeping the peel.