The Future of Mexico's Agribusiness and Food Industry

The future of global food security is increasingly uncertain, subject to climate change, biodiversity loss, and shifting agricultural demands. There is an urgent need for investment in agricultural innovation and a long-term strategy to build resilient food systems, according to Bram Govaerts, General Director, CIMMYT.

CIMMYT has played a pivotal role in introducing the dwarfing gene that revolutionized wheat yields, preventing global food shortages for decades. However, ensuring future food security requires continuous investment. The emergence of crop diseases, such as UG99, a wheat disease with no natural immunity, demonstrates the need for ongoing research. “What we take for granted today must be carefully considered,” he warned. ““Seventy percent of wheat varieties worldwide originate from CIMMYT's genetic materials. However, we cannot assume that research will continue unless we invest in it.”

Since his inauguration, President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending USAID’s humanitarian assistance. “The decision triggered widespread concern in the international community and threatens to destabilize vulnerable regions and halt decades of progress in development, health, and human rights,” according to IE University. This lack of investment will have an impact on CIMMTY research, as 60% of its funding comes from USAID.

The biggest challenge for CIMMYT, however, lies in justifying investment in preventive measures. “How do you demonstrate the value of investing in something that has not happened yet?,” asked Govaerts. Despite this, CIMMYT remains a key player in global food security discussions, being the only agricultural research organization invited to global security forums.

CIMMYT’s 2030 strategy focuses on enhancing food system resilience and addressing economic losses from declining yields. In Mexico, maize production losses may reach US$5 billion annually, with Sinaloa, Michoacan, and Guanajuato being the most affected states. “If we want to change this trajectory, we need a 20-year strategic plan,” Govaerts emphasized.

Key components of CIMMYT’s approach include:

• Regenerative Agriculture:
  • 60% reduction in CO₂ emissions from diesel consumption
  • 70% less fuel usage
  • Enhanced soil fertility by up to 30%
  • Water savings of up to 6 million m3 in barley production
• Knowledge Transfer and Training:
  • Only 6.7% of Mexican farmers received technical assistance in 2022, limiting access to innovations
  • Expanding knowledge-sharing programs will empower farmers with decision-making tools to better manage climate risks and sustainability challenges.

CIMMYT’s Cereales para México: Visión 2040 (Cereals for Mexico: 2040 Vision) program projects different scenarios for maize, wheat, and bean production, emphasizing the need for diversification and improved market connectivity. By 2040, maize demand is expected to rise by 46%, while production will increase by 33%, leading to a decline in self-sufficiency from 61% to 55%. Wheat demand will grow by 17%, but self-sufficiency will drop to 42%. In contrast, bean consumption is projected to decline by 11%, while production will see a modest 3% increase, maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate of 95%, according to CIMMYT data.

Based on these results, there are three potential scenarios for Mexico’s agricultural sector. The first is a status quo scenario, where current trends continue, and existing challenges remain unaddressed. The second envisions a shift toward 75% self-sufficiency, with proactive measures aimed at fostering sustainable food systems. The most ambitious scenario targets 100% self-sufficiency, in which Mexico fully meets its cereal crop consumption needs through domestic production. “Mexico’s future depends on Mexico,” urged Govaerts.

Achieving greater food security, however, requires technological advancements and improved market access for small and medium-sized farmers, says Govaerts. “It is one thing to say we want to buy from small farmers; it is another to make it economically viable,” he pointed out. CIMMYT’s approach includes securing profit for agribusiness, building market connections, improving infrastructure, and developing financial mechanisms to enable small farmers to compete effectively.

“To sustain productivity, we must diversify crops, invest in research that ensures resistance to future challenges, and foster collaboration between governments, the private sector, and research institutions,” said Govaerts. “The time to act is now, ensuring that the agricultural innovations of today lay the foundation for a resilient, food-secure future.”