Global Agri-Food Production to Maintain Growth: FAO

According to a report published by FAO and the OECD, global food production will continue to grow over the next 10 years. However, it will do so at a slower pace than in the previous decade as a result of demographic trends.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032, expects agri-food production to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%. These predictions assume a rapid recovery from recent inflationary pressures, normal climatic conditions, the absence of major changes in policies and an evolution of consumer preferences in line with trends. "General trends described in the report point in a good direction, but they must be accelerated. Promoting a faster transition to sustainable agri-food systems will bring many benefits and contribute to a better quality of life for all people,” said QU Dongyu, Director General, FAO. 

The study estimates that cereal production will decrease over the next 10 years, given that per capita consumption of most cereals is reaching saturation levels in many countries. “In 2032, 41% of cereals will be destined for human consumption, 37% for animal feed and the rest for biofuels and other industrial uses,” the report reads. 

Meat consumption is expected to increase by 0.1% annually, mainly driven by low and middle-income countries. Per capita consumption levels of meat in Western Europe and North American countries are expected to fall. On the other hand, there will be an annual increase of 1.3% in global livestock and fisheries production. Poultry could account for almost half of this increase by the end of 2032. 

Milk production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.5%, with India and Pakistan leading the way, accounting for almost a third of world milk production by 2032. On the contrary, production is expected to decrease in the EU as a result of the transition to more environmentally sustainable production systems.

North America will likely remain the second largest exporter of agricultural commodities during this decade. However, strong domestic consumption growth is expected to reduce its net export position slightly. For Latin America, the report projected that the trade surplus of agricultural products will increase by 17%, bringing the share of agricultural exports up to 40% by 2032.

GHG emissions from agriculture are expected to increase by 7.5% during the mentioned period, less than half of the projected output growth, which indicates a significant decrease in the carbon intensity of agricultural production. The study forecasts that the livestock sector will account for 86% of the increase in emissions, which highlights the importance of transitioning to sustainable agri-food systems.