Meat Tax Could Cut Health, Climate Risks in Mexico

A new study suggests that a tax on red and processed meat could help reduce its consumption in Mexico. This measure would promote healthier eating habits while also decreasing the environmental impact of the country’s food system.

The research, led by scientists from the University of Edinburgh and Mexico’s National Institute of Public Health (INSP), evaluates how Mexican households would respond to various scenarios involving price increases on these products, simulating taxes similar to those already applied to sugary drinks. The authors propose that a 10% price hike on processed meats could reduce consumption by 8.3%. Similarly, a 10% increase in the price of red meat would lead to a 7.9% drop in demand.

The study highlights that the consumption of red meat and processed meats in Mexico exceeds official dietary recommendations and contributes to both chronic diseases and the climate crisis. According to the 2023 Food Guide for the Mexican Population, red meat is a valuable source of nutrients. However, overconsumption has been linked to health issues such as cardiovascular diseases, the leading cause of death in Mexico, and cancer. Additionally, its production is associated with the loss of ecosystems such as forests, jungles, and grasslands, and ranks as the third-largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

According to data from the Mexican Meat Council (COMECARNE), meat consumption increased by 9kg between 2019 and 2023, reaching an annual per capita average of 80kg of beef, pork, chicken, lamb, and goat. In contrast, the national dietary guidelines recommend a maximum of about 312 portions per year, equivalent to roughly 13kg per person. This means actual consumption was more than six times higher than the suggested amount.

The analysis drew on data from over 240,000 Mexican households, collected between 2018 and 2022 by the national statistics agency INEGI. It was complemented by nutritional surveys and a longitudinal study of women in Jalisco and Veracruz. Using this information, the research team estimated how red and processed meat purchases would change in response to price increases, and what other foods people might choose instead.

The article argues that lower-income households are more sensitive to price hikes, but they tend to replace meat with more nutritious and affordable options from traditional diets, such as legumes or seafood. This suggests that such fiscal measures could help reduce health inequalities, provided they are paired with complementary policies like subsidies for fruits and vegetables or nutrition education programs.

Kaela Connors, Lead Author and Researcher, University of Edinburgh, argues that to prevent such measures from exacerbating inequality, part of the tax revenue should be allocated to subsidies or vouchers for healthy food. Connors, who previously collaborated with the INSP, says that Mexico is well positioned to adopt this type of policy as the country has a pioneering track record, having been the first in the world to implement a sugary drink tax in 2014 and incorporating sustainability into its dietary guidelines in 2023.

She urged policymakers to take advantage of the political momentum, evident in measures like the ban on junk food in public schools, to move toward a healthier and more sustainable food system. “This is an opportunity for Mexico to simultaneously achieve its public health and sustainability goals,” says Connors.