Study Links Climate Change to Record Low Antarctic Ice in 2023

A study by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) shows that record-low levels of sea ice around Antarctica in 2023 are strongly linked to the influence of climate change. Scientific evidence highlights how climate change significantly heightens the potential long-term impacts on global ecosystems and weather patterns.

The research, recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, pointed out that in 2023, ice in the Antarctic Sea reached historically low levels, with over 2 million km² of ice less than usual during winter, equivalent to about 10 times the size of the United Kingdom. BAS researchers investigated the unprecedented sea ice loss by analyzing data from 18 different climate models to understand the probability of such a significant reduction in sea ice and its connection to climate change.

Rachel Diamond, Lead Author of the paper, explained that while 2023’s extreme low sea ice was made more likely by climate change, it was still considered very rare. The paper highlighted that, as shown by the models, the record-breaking minimum sea ice extent of 2023 would be a one-in-a-2,000-year event without climate change. This indicates that the event was very extreme – anything less than one-in-100 is considered exceptionally unlikely, highlighted the specialist. 

“This is the first time this large set of climate models has been used to find out how unlikely 2023’s low sea ice was. We only have 45 years of satellite measurements of sea ice, which makes it extremely difficult to evaluate changes in sea ice levels. This is where climate models come into their own,” said Diamond. Satellite records of the Antarctic Sea ice began in late 1978. Between then and 2015, Antarctic Sea ice increased slightly and steadily, albeit reaching a record low in 2017, according to the study.

Caroline Holmes, Co-Author of the paper, stressed that climate change makes it four times more likely for the Antarctic ice sheet to contract in such a way, indicating that warming very likely played a role in this unusual phenomenon. However, there are many complex factors that influence Antarctic Sea ice, making it hard to get a clear understanding of why 2023 was such a record-breaking year, the study explains. Experts have highlighted the important role of ocean processes and heat stored below the surface, and warm sea surface temperatures during the first half of 2023 may also have contributed. Additionally, strong variations in north-to-south winds and storm systems also played a role.

BAS researchers used the models to look at how well sea ice is likely to recover, and found that after such extreme sea ice loss, not all the sea ice around Antarctica returns, even after twenty years. “The impacts of Antarctic Sea ice staying low for over twenty years would be profound, including on local and global weather and on unique Southern Ocean ecosystems,” said Louise Sime, Co-Author of the study. This suggests that the last few years’ low sea ice could signal a lasting regime shift in the Southern Ocean, she added.

Antarctic Sea ice provides important ecosystem services, whose benefits extend worldwide. It acts as an engine for ocean currents, influences weather patterns, and is vital for marine life. Moreover, it protects the exposed edges of the ice shelves from waves, curbing Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise.

Climate change poses significant threats to Antarctic ecosystems and many other regions worldwide, as scientific evidence shows. In Mexico, drought and wildfires threaten ecosystems, severely impacting the agriculture sector. Moreover, specialists predict more intense and prolonged heat waves across various regions, leading to overloaded electrical systems and health issues, as reported by MBN. Additionally, high temperatures concentrate pollutants in cities by preventing the dispersal effects of rain and wind, which partly explains the frequent environmental contingency alerts in Mexico City.