As Tariffs Redraw Trade, Mexico’s Agribusiness Has a Winning Hand

Over the past year, global trade has been shaken by a wave of tariff-led nationalism. But in the midst of political noise, one industry — Mexican agribusiness — holds a strategic advantage that few are talking about. While tariffs slam global competitors and fracture supply chains, Mexican farmers who play by USMCA rules are uniquely positioned to dominate the US produce market.

In February 2025, the United States announced a blanket 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, citing concerns over immigration and drug trafficking. Tensions eased briefly after Mexico deployed additional National Guard forces, leading to a short-lived suspension. But by March, tariffs were reinstated. Agricultural exports were partially shielded — goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remain exempt. However, not all producers meet those standards. Then, in April, the United States withdrew from the Tomato Suspension Agreement, and most tomatoes imported from Mexico are now set to face a 20.91% duty starting July 14.

This is a pivotal moment for Mexican agriculture, which plays a vital role in US food security. In 2023 alone, the United States imported over US$18 billion in agricultural products from Mexico, and nearly 78% of all fresh vegetables imported by the United States came from Mexican soil. For key crops like tomatoes, avocados, cucumbers, and berries, Mexico is not just a top supplier, it is often the only viable year-round source.

Yet, trade compliance is not automatic. Take Juan, a bell pepper farmer in Sinaloa. Although his peppers are grown in Mexico, he uses Dutch irrigation systems and Chinese fertilizers. These non-USMCA inputs push his production outside of origin requirements. As a result, Juan’s exports face the full 25% tariff. On the other hand, María, a tomato grower in Baja California, produces in full compliance with USMCA. But because her cooperative exceeded the US import quota for tomatoes, her exports will soon be hit with a 20.91% duty, despite her paperwork and local sourcing being perfectly in order.

For US consumers, the impact will be felt, but it won’t mirror the effect of tariffs on cars or tech. You can delay buying a car. But a family won't stop buying tomatoes, berries, or avocados because prices increase 10–20%. These are everyday products. Demand is steady, and substitution is limited. The US consumer is unlikely to switch to domestically grown alternatives because the volume doesn’t exist, and for many crops, growing seasons don’t align.

So far, over 80% of Mexican agricultural exports to the US remain compliant with USMCA, and the risk of widespread disruption is relatively low. But even a 20% exposure can shake margins for producers and shift sourcing decisions for buyers. That’s where the opportunity lies.

This new trade context creates strong incentives for producers to rethink their practices. By tracking inputs and aligning fully with USMCA guidelines, farmers not only preserve market access, they increase their value. Monitoring quota windows and managing supply chains based on tariff exposure transforms exporters into strategic operators. Better yet, this level of visibility improves transparency for consumers and discourages unfair price dumping.

More importantly, Mexican agriculture now offers something no other country can: tariff-free access to the US market in a world where nearly everyone else is locked out. As countries like Peru, Spain, and Chile face higher trade barriers, compliant Mexican exports become more attractive — and more valuable. Forecasts suggest Mexican fresh produce exports could grow by up to 35% over the next five years, replacing volume lost from tariff-affected suppliers elsewhere.

The rules are clear, and so is the path forward. Mexico has the workforce, climate, and logistics to remain the United States’ most important source of produce. If we embrace the framework, align with compliance, and plan smarter, this isn’t just about weathering tariffs, it’s about using them to lead.