The Year in Agribusiness: Mexico’s Agrifood Sector in 2025

In 2025, Mexico’s agrifood sector navigated a year defined by climate stress, trade frictions, and shifting regulatory priorities. Prolonged drought conditions and price pressures weighed on crop production, while tariffs, sanitary restrictions, and antidumping measures reshaped trade flows with key partners, particularly the United States. At the same time, the government advanced policies aimed at food security, public health, and market diversification, reinforcing Mexico’s strategic role in global agrifood trade amid an increasingly complex economic and geopolitical landscape.

Mexico’s agricultural sector faced a combination of climatic and political challenges that weighed on productivity. At the start of the year, drought conditions once again threatened the Mexican countryside, mirroring the situation experienced in 2024. Forecasts by the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) projected that national grain and oilseed production would fall to its lowest level in 25 years by 2025, driven by persistent water stress, particularly in the northern, northwestern, and central regions of the country.

According to the 2025 Agrifood Outlook, published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), by the end of 2025 corn production had declined by 1.11%, as reduced water availability affected harvests in Sinaloa, the country’s leading corn-producing state. Under these same conditions, the spring bean harvest in states such as Zacatecas and Durango posted reduced yields for a second consecutive year. However, by year-end, significant improvements were reported in legume production. Zacatecas alone produced more than 350,000t, followed by Durango with 140,000t and Chihuahua with 80,000t.

In response to the drought, the federal government reported progress on the National Water Plan and irrigation modernization initiatives aimed at improving agricultural water efficiency. In July, the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) announced 24% progress in the modernization of irrigation districts 003, 100, and 112, which supply the state of Hidalgo. Meanwhile, Irrigation District 001 in Aguascalientes reached 76% physical progress in sections 16, 18, and 19. At the national level, the government aims to recover 2.8 billion m³ of water, with investments exceeding MX$63 billion between 2025 and 2030.

In addition to challenges caused by adverse weather conditions, a wave of protests emerged in 4Q25 as agricultural producers expressed dissatisfaction with the prices set for staple grains such as corn, beans, wheat, and sorghum. In an effort to address farmers’ demands, the Mexican government reached an agreement in late October with corn producers from the Bajio region.

Under the agreement, producers in Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Michoacan will receive a direct payment of MX$950/t (US$51.63/t) of corn, with the federal government contributing MX$800 and state governments providing the remaining MX$150. This support will be paid on top of the market price negotiated by producers, resulting in a guaranteed base price of MX$6,150/t, comprising a fixed base of MX$5,200 plus the MX$950 subsidy.

Moreover, in December, following a series of dialogue sessions, representatives of the National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM) and government officials reached a consensus to establish a strategic food reserve. The proposal, put forward by the FNRCM as a mechanism to stabilize staple grain prices, envisions a joint investment of MX$100 billion (US$5.5 billion) by the federal government and the private sector.

The strategy includes the purchase and storage of staple grains such as corn, beans, wheat, and sorghum to strengthen food security and provide greater certainty for producers. Under this scheme, farmers will be able to access financing using their harvests as collateral without losing ownership of the grain and without assuming financial or storage costs. These costs will be absorbed by the government, granting producers up to six additional months to market their crops under more favorable conditions.

Tariffs, Trade Disputes and Market Diversification

At the end of 2024, US President Donald Trump proposed the introduction of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, a measure that initially took effect on Feb. 1. Following two temporary pauses in February and March, negotiated with the governments of President Claudia Sheinbaum and former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the United States moved forward with the imposition of tariffs on a range of goods excluded from USMCA preferences, including agricultural products, effective April 2.

In the case of tomatoes, the United States withdrew from the 2019 Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Investigation on Fresh Tomatoes From Mexico. The termination of the agreement, which took effect on July 14, 2025, resulted in a 17.09% antidumping duty on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico, marking a significant shift in bilateral agricultural trade conditions.

Following the implementation of this policy, the Mexican government announced a new minimum export price system designed to protect the domestic tomato industry. The scheme, which took effect on Aug. 8, 2025, aims to prevent unfair trade practices and ensure fair competition with US producers amid heightened trade tensions. Minimum export prices were set at US$0.88/kg for Roma tomatoes, US$0.95/kg for round tomatoes, and US$1.70/kg for cherry, grape, and specialty varieties.

As a result of the tariffs, exports of fresh or refrigerated tomatoes fell 26.4% year-on-year in August to US$169.8 million, compared with US$230.9 million in the same month of 2024. Specialists noted that this represented the lowest August export value since 2020, when pandemic-related disruptions reduced shipments to US$158.3 million.

Sinaloa accounts for roughly half of the state’s agricultural exports and generates annual revenues of US$3 billion from the US market. The Culiacan River Farmers Association (APC) warned that the tariff regime threatens this income stream and could significantly alter the region’s productive structure.

Planted area in the state has declined between 18% and 25% year-on-year, as producers seek to reduce exposure to uncertainty surrounding US demand. The APC anticipates that many agricultural workers will shift to other crops during the 2025–2026 growing cycle.

Trade tensions also affected the livestock sector after the detection of New World screwworm in Mexico prompted the United States to suspend imports of live cattle in late 2024. Although both governments implemented enhanced sanitary controls and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) signaled a gradual reopening of the border, with exports expected to resume on July 7, 2025, the plan was short-lived. On July 9, US authorities reversed course, citing ongoing sanitary risks, and reinstated the suspension indefinitely, once again delaying the reopening of cattle exports.

Throughout the year, the Mexican government implemented a broad sanitary containment strategy aimed at restoring cattle exports. SENASICA reinforced zoosanitary barriers in the south–southeast, deployed canine detection teams, expanded monitoring traps, advanced sterile fly programs, and invested more than MX$1.2 billion in pest control, while modernizing key Federal Verification and Inspection Points.

Authorities reported that 99.9% of cases have been contained in the south–southeast for more than a year, with no secondary outbreaks in central or northern regions, and emphasized that infection rates remain statistically minimal. In early December, Julio Berdegué, Minister of Agriculture, stated that sanitary conditions support a resumption of trade and that cattle exports are close to reopening. However, by year-end, neither the Mexican nor the US government had issued formal statements confirming a specific reopening date.

Beyond trade disruptions with the United States, Mexico strengthened its global trade presence through other international agreements. Relations with Canada advanced in 2025 as both countries deepened agricultural cooperation and expanded bilateral trade under the Canada–Mexico Action Plan 2025–2028.

Meanwhile, seeking to diversify trade, Mexico intensified efforts to expand agri-food exports to Japan, positioning the country as a strategic counterweight to uncertainty in the US market. Japan has emerged as Mexico’s most important agri-food partner in Asia and its second-largest agricultural trading partner overall. Recent milestones, including Japan’s authorization of fresh Mexican bell pepper imports after 16 years of technical negotiations, reinforced bilateral trust and opened new opportunities for producers.

Junk Food and Beverages Regulation

In February, the federal government launched Vive Saludable, Vive Feliz (Live Healthy, Live Happy) as a nationwide strategy to improve children’s nutrition and long-term health. Rolled out in elementary schools across the country, the program combines a national student health census with a formal ban on the sale of junk food and sugary beverages in schools. These regulations entered into force on March 29, 2025, following guidelines issued in late 2024 by the Ministries of Education and Health.

The strategy directly targets ultra-processed and high-calorie foods in schools, supported by operational guidelines for school cooperatives that clearly define permitted and prohibited items. While the policy initially faced resistance and legal challenges from segments of the food industry, major companies, including Coca-Cola, committed not to sell products carrying warning labels in elementary schools and agreed not to pursue legal injunctions against the ban.

Building on its public health and nutrition agenda, the Chamber of Deputies approved in February a presidential initiative to constitutionally ban the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) corn. The reform seeks to protect native varieties and traditional farming systems such as the milpa, following Mexico’s loss of a USMCA dispute over GM corn imports that forced the country to lift trade restrictions earlier this year. The measure underscores the government’s position that safeguarding native corn is essential to both public health and the preservation of Mexico’s biocultural heritage.

In parallel, the federal government advanced measures to tighten regulations on sugary drinks. Lawmakers approved reforms to prohibit the sale of energy drinks to minors, citing their high sugar and stimulant content, and pushed forward proposals to tax flavored electrolyte beverages and reclassify them as sugary drinks rather than medicines. These initiatives seek to close regulatory loopholes, curb aggressive marketing aimed at children and adolescents, and align these products with existing taxes and front-of-package warning label requirements applied to other high-sugar beverages.

To complete this regulatory push on unhealthy ingredients, COFEPRIS announced in October that it will restrict the use of Red Dye No. 3 in processed foods. The precautionary measure, which mirrors actions taken by the US Food and Drug Administration and other international regulators, will be incorporated into an upcoming update of Mexico’s food additives regulation and will grant manufacturers a 24-month transition period to reformulate their products.