Mexico Braces for a New Wave of Cyber Threats in 2026

Cybersecurity experts forecast a significant increase in digital threats throughout Mexico in 2026, driven by high-profile events, the enhanced sophistication of cybercrime, and the adoption of AI by malicious actors. This landscape includes the integration of drug trafficking into the cybercrime sphere, and the persistent risk of sensitive data breaches within government agencies. 

“Criminal groups can use the capabilities of AI to evade detection controls and this is widely observed in the increase of identity theft and fraud cases. Intrusions have transitioned from days to a matter of days or hours,” says Manuel Moreno, Cybersecurity Advisor, IQSEC. This acceleration in attack execution reduces the necessary time for detection and mitigation, consequently exposing corporations to critical operational vulnerabilities.

The risk environment is shaped by the convergence of three factors: high-impact events, the professionalization of cybercrime, and the dual implementation of AI.

First, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted with the United States and Canada, serves as a major catalyst for cyber fraud. Víctor Ruiz, Founder, SILIKN, warns that sectors such as tourism, transportation, logistics, hotels and lodging, commerce, and restaurants will be particularly susceptible to identity fraud intended to orchestrate phishing attacks to extract users’ banking information. This vulnerability extends to other major events, for example, the Super Bowl, the Academy Awards, and local elections.

Second, the cybercrime structure is evolving toward a more professional and corporate model. Lone hackers are being replaced by organized groups that offer “professional services” for cyberattacks. This professionalization threatens the operational continuity of essential sectors, possessing the capacity to paralyze national infrastructures. According to IQSEC, the sectors predicted to be most affected in Mexico by this trend are the government, the financial sector, and the manufacturing industry.

An additional component of risk is the integration of organized crime and traditional drug trafficking groups into the digital domain, a phenomenon referred to as “digital narco.” Ruiz says that this symbiosis uses economic resources to acquire tools, contract specialists, and compromise business and government systems. This phenomenon diversifies the criminal activities of organized crime, employing digital tools for harassment, victim location, and extortion.

Finally, AI presents a dual-edged challenge. While AI is essential for automating incident response and enhancing security technologies, cybercriminal groups are exploiting the technology to execute intrusions that historically required days or weeks, but which now deploy in a matter of hours.

“AI has reached a point where it can simulate voices, faces, and behaviors with such precision that it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the real from the fake. The speed of technological change we are experiencing today is the slowest we will see in our lifetime: from now on, everything will move faster. This implies that risks are also accelerating and multiplying,” tells to MBN Juan Carlos Carrillo, CEO, OneSec.

Given this environment, organizational responses should focus on adopting resilient security models and mitigating structural vulnerabilities. 

Moreno identifies the “Zero Trust” concept as essential for 2026. This model, which operates under the premise of not trusting anything and verifying everything, is crucial for managing non-human identities, including autonomous AI agents. Its implementation allows for complete traceability of agent actions, the regulation of access and authorizations, the prevention of data leakage, and the containment of attacks. Furthermore, AI will function as an instrument to detect privacy breaches, relevant within the context of government projects for a single identity based on biometrics, such as the biometric CURP.

Within the government sector, persistent vulnerabilities constitute an attractive target for cybercrime. Ruiz attributes part of the exposure to a lack of investment in technology and the utilization of obsolete equipment, or equipment lacking security support, across multiple agencies. Previous incidents, such as the data leakage of almost 20 million pensioners from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) in September, which the agency attributed to an insider misuse of access, and the vulnerability at the National Water Commission (CONAGUA) to HTTP request smuggling attacks, confirm the critical nature of federal infrastructure.

Another critical challenge involves managing the human factor. Around 70% of reported incidents in Mexican agencies involve current or former employees who have compromised access credentials, according to Ruiz. Moreno further notes that the shortage of cybersecurity professionals and the lack of trained talent for the secure use of AI represent a key challenge. Corporations must invest in training programs that include psychological aspects to strengthen resistance to social engineering attacks.

Furthermore, Ruiz says that digital defense strategies require updating given the sophistication of criminal activity. Ruiz says that the attempt to combat extortion by registering SIM cards with the CURP is potentially obsolete, considering the ability of criminal groups to use foreign SIMs, virtual SIMs, Voice over IP (VoIP), and Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).

Moreno recommends that organizations invest in precise diagnostics and evaluate their actual capabilities to identify, protect, detect, respond, and recover using a cyber defense matrix. This approach will allow for the development of an effective roadmap for the next 12–36 months, ensuring that the defense capability aligns with the threats, combining mature infrastructure, AI, and, most importantly, a culture of constant verification and prevention.