North America’s Outlook Shaped by USMCA, Credit, and AI

North America's economic leadership hinges on strategic collaboration and maintaining regulatory certainty, with Mexico emerging as a highly dynamic investment hub fueled by nearshoring, according to leaders at the Milken Institute Global Investors' Symposium.

Speakers, including executives from Principal Financial Group, GIC, and Finnish Capital, pointed to Mexico’s strong macroeconomic foundation, currency stability, and expanding manufacturing base as factors positioning it as a top destination for international capital.

“Mexico offers a unique mix of macro stability and micro opportunity,” said Wolfgang Schwerdtle, Head of GIC's Brazil Office and Head, Direct Investments Group. “Its growing middle class and industrial depth make it an unparalleled market in Latin America.”

However, panelists agreed that investment execution and financial development are critical to unlocking the full potential of this opportunity.

Capital Execution and Financial Gaps

Roberto Lasevi, CEO, Bancomext, pointed out a significant distribution bottleneck, noting that Mexico has only one bank for every 100,000 companies. Furthermore, private credit represents only 34.6% of GDP, less than half of Brazil’s ratio. “Private credit in the world is not scarce, but execution is,” Lasevi said.

Alejandra Manríquez, Investment and Financial Development Manager at CAF, noted gaps in financial inclusion, stating that Mexico is “one of the lowest in the region in terms of financial inclusion; about 45% versus 70% in the regional average.”

Innovation in finance and technology is seen as a key solution. Panelists highlighted the rapid development of private credit, pension funds, and fintech as pillars of Mexico’s financial modernization. For instance, Banco Coppel reported a major digital shift: “Five years ago, 5% of personal loans were given digitally; today, 75% are handled entirely on the customer’s cell phone,” said Rubén Coppel, Board Chairman, BanCoppel and Afore Coppel. 

USMCA Review and Regional Integration

As the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) approaches, leaders stressed that the process must prioritize stability over disruption.

“Certainty is the most important thing; it will bring stability and guarantee another 16 years of prosperity for the region,” said Mexico’s Ambassador to the U.S., Esteban Moctezuma. He and Canada’s Ambassador Cameron MacKay emphasized the review should be a strategic opportunity to strengthen the partnership, not a renegotiation.

“The goal should be a narrow, focused, and targeted review,” MacKay said. “The private sector needs predictability, not surprises.”

Panelists agreed that the USMCA framework, which makes North America the world’s largest and most successful trading bloc, is crucial for fostering regional resilience amid geopolitical shifts. A Canadian representative emphasized that “Canada and Mexico are entering a new three-year strategic roadmap to strengthen trade, innovation, and investment ties.”

Carlos Slim, Chairman, Grupo Carso, noted the regional complementarity: “The United States, Mexico, and Canada together can form one of the most competitive blocs in the world. Mexico brings youth, manufacturing, and proximity; the United States brings innovation and technology; and Canada brings energy and resources. Combining them is the key to stabilizing supply chains and controlling inflation.”

The Minister of Economy (SE), Marcelo Ebrard, stated that significant results are expected in the next two weeks regarding the negotiation topics for the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The official projected a 90% advancement in issues to be negotiated.

Ebrard stated that once the review begins, the three countries will have clarity on the points of discussion and the collective goals. "It is increasingly clear that there is no way to compete with Asia without very close coordination between us,” he said. 

Investment Focus and Infrastructure Gaps

The rise of nearshoring is driving investment in industrial and logistics assets, particularly in Mexico's northern and central regions. Emilio Cadenas Rubio, CEO, Prodenza, called manufacturing “the greatest opportunity in Mexico’s modern history.” He suggested that capturing just 10% of China’s six million manufacturing establishments could double North America’s manufacturing footprint.

However, infrastructure and logistics require major investment. Alejandra Botero, Manager, Investments and Financial Development, Banco de Desarrollo de América Latina y El Caribe, noted that “Mexico has 109 kilometers of road per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 189 in Argentina and 230 in Uruguay.” Development banks, she added, must act as “risk mitigators” through co-investment models, citing guarantees as an instrument with “incredible potential in the coming years.”

Technology and Innovation as Growth Multipliers

Artificial intelligence (AI) and technology were universally identified as key multipliers for the region.

Mario Antunes, CEO and Founder, Equity Link, stated, “AI is all over right now... There is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to redesign the financial ecosystem in North America.” Technology, including digital platforms like MercadoLibre, is enabling millions of previously unbanked consumers to participate in the economy. Leandro Cuccioli, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development, Strategy, Sustainability and Investor Relations, Mercado Libre, noted that only 15% of Mexicans have credit cards, highlighting the role of digital platforms in addressing this gap.

Michael Milken, Chairman of the Milken Institute, summarized the long-term investment: “If you look around the world, you will find [that Mexico] is a place with young people, half under 30, many trained in STEM, good weather, and access to the sea.”