Climate Denialism Won in 2025: What Comes Next for Mexico?

In January 2025, I wrote in this same section that one of the five key points of the year’s climate agenda would be “not giving in to climate denialism” in the face of Donald Trump’s presidential victory. Months later, it must be said plainly: that objective failed. Once again, the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement reinstated climate denialism at the global level during the first year of his administration.

Although COP30 achieved partial progress, with a new fund for forests, commitments to finance Indigenous communities, and bioeconomy projects, the negotiations stalled precisely at the central point. Media outlets reported that negotiators “abandoned efforts for a roadmap to meet the 2030 zero-deforestation target” [1] and that the final text omitted any reference to a transition away from fossil fuels, due to the pressure of oil-producing and major-emitting countries.

The COPs have ceased to be strategic spaces and have instead become forums for exposure and networking. Their original mission, defining how to decarbonize, regulating carbon markets, and aligning policy with science, has been diluted. Meanwhile, the world is advancing slowly: various analyses show that only 17% of the pathway necessary to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals has been fulfilled, including those related to climate [2].

Trump 2.0: Climate Denialism as Industrial Policy

Meanwhile, the United States has gone from leading the transition under Joe Biden’s administration to derailing it from the top. In his second term, Trump has taken three steps that reshape climate geopolitics.

First, he again withdrew from the Paris Agreement through an executive order on Jan. 20, 2025, sending the signal that the country no longer recognizes multilateral climate obligations [3]. Second, the freezing of unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Law, ordering reviews and slowdowns of investments in clean energy and efficiency [4]. And finally, the rollback of vehicle efficiency standards and support for electric vehicles, which increases long-term mobility costs in the United States and deepens dependence on gasoline [5].

The message to the rest of the world is clear. If the largest economy on the planet decides to bet once again on oil and gas, countries that depend on those revenues feel politically authorized to slow their own transitions. The problem is that physics does not negotiate.

Meanwhile, the fossil economy continues to dominate. The most recent data show that in 2025 global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use will exceed 38 gigatons, the highest figure ever recorded [6]. To imagine it: as if all of humanity turned on 8 billion cars at the same time and left them running nonstop for 365 days.

In 2024 alone, the energy sector had already reached a record 37.8 gigatons [7]. And if we add the pollution that comes from deforestation and land-use change, total emissions generated by humanity today exceed 42 gigatons per year [8]. The CO₂ already accumulated in the atmosphere is around 426 parts per million (ppm) — a level so high that there is no record of humanity ever having lived under such conditions [9].

Mexico Between Energy Sovereignty and Climate Power

The question for Mexico is not only climatic but strategic: Are we going to remain anchored to a fossil model defended in the name of “energy sovereignty,” or are we going to use this global leadership vacuum to become a climate power?

In Mexico, the debate continues to be framed in terms of energy sovereignty. The new administration has reiterated that the path forward lies in strengthening Pemex and CFE as the core of the electrical system and the development model, limiting the private sector in generation and operation of infrastructure [10].

But the numbers and the climate reality suggest another possible reading: What if true energy sovereignty lies in leading the transition, not delaying it? Today, the country is in a kind of catastrophic paralysis.

On the one hand, PEMEX remains the state’s most important company and the main fiscal anchor, making it politically very difficult to limit its fossil business model. Meanwhile, CFE has begun to use sustainable financing — more than MX$64.7 billion (US$3.5 billion) earmarked for green and social projects in 2025 — but that still does not structurally change the electric matrix [11].

The paradox is that Mexico has everything necessary to become a climate power: large-scale solar in the Sonoran Desert; wind resources in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and northern regions; hydroelectric potential in already-developed river basins; and the capacity to explore offshore energy, which is currently completely absent from the regulatory framework.

The blockage is not technological: it is political and regulatory. We continue debating whether clean energy should be public or private, instead of recognizing that the urgent priority is that it exists, and only then defining the best institutional arrangement for it to function.

Mobilizations without climate demands

At the same time, another concerning phenomenon is unfolding in the streets. Mexico is not absent from mobilizations: the so-called “Generation Z” has organized marches for democracy, against militarization, for civil rights. I myself joined some of these demonstrations. But there is one fact we cannot ignore: almost never are there climate demands.

In protests led by young people—where the future is the central theme—climate, water, and the energy transition hardly appear. This contrasts with Europe or the United States, where the “climate strike” has become everyday political language.

The consequence is direct, given that few Mexicans decide their vote based on the energy or climate agenda. Political parties feel no incentive to present serious decarbonization plans. And the debate collapses into ideological labels: “petroleum nationalism” vs. “privatization,” instead of talking about physical risk, financial risk, and industrial opportunity.

What is at stake for the business sector

Mexico faces a new climate normal: hurricanes like Otis, severe droughts, and extreme flooding are no longer exceptions, but signs of growing physical risk that affect supply chains, insurance, and infrastructure. At the same time, the country faces regulatory risk: as Europe accelerates carbon and traceability standards, Mexico could fall behind if it cannot demonstrate a real energy transition.

However, this context also offers an industrial opportunity. Nearshoring and advanced manufacturing will only be sustainable if the country guarantees clean, affordable, and reliable electricity. Achieving this requires a deep energy reform, not more of the same.

COP30 demonstrated that the multilateral system alone will not save us. U.S. leadership has again withdrawn from the climate arena, and major fossil powers have taken advantage to block ambition [12].

In this vacuum, middle-income countries like Mexico have two options: follow the inertia of the fossil model or bet on becoming a climate power, using Pemex and CFE not as obstacles but as levers for an orderly transition with long-term vision and regulatory clarity. This year the world ceded ground to climate denialism, and Mexico continues leaving on the table the opportunity to become a climate power.

References:

[1] Reuters. (2025, 28 de noviembre). No roadmap to end deforestation, but Brazil's COP in the Amazon delivered for forests. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/no-roadmap-end-deforestation-brazils-cop-amazon-delivered-forests--ecmii-2025-11-28/?utm_source=chatgpt.com. 

[2] El Tiempo. (2025, 2 de enero) Cumplimiento de la Agenda 2030: sólo quedan cinco años. ¿En qué punto se encuentran?. El Tiempo. https://www.eltiempo.es/noticias/estado-de-la-agenda-2030-solo-quedan-cinco-anos-en-que-punto-se-encuentran.

[3] White House. (2025, January 20). Executive Order on the Withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[4] Walton, R. (2025, January 27). Judge orders Trump administration to reinstate Inflation Reduction Act funding. Utility Dive. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/judge-orders-trump-reinstate-inflation-reduction-act-funding/745541/

[5] Irfan, U. (2025, December 4). Trump’s anti-climate agenda is making it more expensive to own a car. Vox. https://www.vox.com/climate/467215/trump-gasoline-prices-fuel-economy-evs-climate 

[6] Global Carbon Project. (2025). Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions hit record high in 2025. Global Carbon Budget. https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2025/

[7] International Energy Agency. (2025). Global Energy Review 2025: CO₂ Emissions. IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/co2-emissions

[8] CSIRO. (2025, November). Global Carbon Budget 2025. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2025/November/Global-Carbon-Budget-2025

[9] Global Carbon Project. (2025). 

[10] Reccessary. (2025, January 23). Mexico is remodelling its energy landscape. Reccessary. https://www.reccessary.com/en/news/mexico-is-remodelling-its-energy-landscape

[11] Mexico Business News. (2024, November 15). Sheinbaum Outlines Energy Strategy at Week of Energy. Mexico Business News. https://mexicobusiness.news/energy/news/sheinbaum-outlines-energy-strategy-week-energy

[12] World Resources Institute. (2025, January 13). COP30 Outcomes: What Happened in Belem and the Next Steps for Global Climate Action. WRI. https://www.wri.org/insights/cop30-outcomes-next-steps