US and China Ease Tensions: Is Mexican Industry Breathing Easier?

In November 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced the suspension, for one year, of several export control measures on rare earths, battery materials, and strategic technologies, a decision widely seen as a signal of détente toward the United States after almost 11 months of commercial friction. 

However, this “relaxation” does not eliminate controls or cross-tariffs between two of the most powerful countries and economies in the world. It merely freezes them temporarily. That has a key implication for Mexico's economy and industries: there is indeed a breather, but it comes with a "ticking clock." 

In other words, China’s partial suspension buys time, not certainty. Controls over these critical inputs, essential for producing electric motors, semiconductors, and electronic devices, can be reactivated at any moment. In fact, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) continues to enforce several measures targeting the technology sector. In short, the traffic light remains yellow. 

It is enough to look back over the first 10 months of 2025 and make a list of the series of unexpected changes and tariff decisions that have been made, sometimes "overnight" and not metaphorically. If there is a word to describe this year in terms of the global economy, particularly between the United States and China, it is "uncertainty."

So, what does China’s decision mean for Mexico’s trade environment? In this case, the easing offers an operational window for manufacturers that rely on critical materials. 

Take the automotive sector as an example, which this year has been particularly affected and is key to the Mexican economy: According to INEGI, Mexico’s auto production fell 3.7% in October, while exports declined 5.5%. Behind those figures lies a deep dependency on Asian inputs, whose availability is disrupted every time trade relations between Washington and Beijing cool down. 

That is why the real message for Mexican companies is strategic. This diplomatic breather should serve to diversify supply sources and strengthen logistics planning. In practice, that means, first, reinforcing safety inventories. It’s not just about stockpiling, it’s about identifying the most vulnerable components and ensuring enough supply to keep production running through unexpected shifts. 

Second, it means redesigning routes and delivery calendars. Maritime transit remains the main bottleneck, and depending on a single port or dispatch point can become a risky bet. Another aspect that will be key not only in 2026 but also from the last months of the current year will be adopting a dual sourcing model. This is because relying on a single country or supplier is equivalent to concentrating all risk in one point. Therefore, it is best to work on diversifying sources. While it does not eliminate global exposure, it definitely drastically reduces the possibility of a total disruption.

From a logistics perspective, 2026 will be a year of transition. Companies that assume this easing is permanent may face a renewed “valve-closure” in global trade with only a few days’ notice. Let’s remember that, in logistics, planning is not a reaction, it’s a defense. Mexico can and must use this period to anticipate future tariff adjustments and consolidate its role as a reliable regional partner. 

About the author:

Ilan Epelbaum is the Director General of Mail Boxes Etc. in Mexico (MBE), a position from which he is responsible for leading relationships and negotiations with business partners, carriers in the country, and overseeing the company's positioning in the country. He is also responsible for the business relationships with MBE franchisees in Mexico and in the region, and leader for the company's expansion throughout the 32 states of the Mexican republic.