The Future of Mining: Trends and Predictions for 2025-2030

The Mexican mining industry stands at a crossroads, with political uncertainty raising concerns about trade relations with North America. Companies must assess the risks and opportunities in these uncertain times to ensure the continued supply of minerals needed for the energy transition and industrial development.

The imposition of a US 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports on Mar. 4, 2024, despite being postponed until April 2025, marks an unprecedented shift for the USMCA region, which has benefited from free trade for over three decades. The fear of inflationary effects from these measures in the US hangs over the economy, directly impacting metal prices, particularly gold, which is considered a haven during inflationary pressures. At the time of writing, gold stands at US$2,912/oz, one of its highest levels in 1Q25.  

Despite the increase in some metal prices, experts noted that this will pressure costs, making it urgent for companies to work on building a more efficient cost structure. “It is a wake-up call for Mexico and Canada to strengthen their domestic industries. In Canada, it could push the government to accelerate permit timelines, enabling more mine development for a more prosperous economy. A similar shift could also take place in Mexico,” said Andrew Snowden, CFO, Torex Gold.

While rising metal prices can benefit mining companies, particularly those in the precious metals sector, these companies must assess their supply chains to avoid negative impacts from tariffs, whether they remain unilateral or Mexico implements retaliatory measures. “Tariffs will increase costs for everyone, from consumers to businesses, driving a shift toward national sourcing. Companies already positioned for local sourcing will have some protection against these impacts, although not everything can be sourced domestically,” noted Jason Simpson, President and CEO, Orla Mining.

It is essential to determine how many suppliers are based in the United States and explore how Mexican suppliers can fill any gaps. Additionally, companies should evaluate the locations where their metals are refined. “We need to rebuild vertical integration by developing smelting, refining and finished goods capacity within the region. For example, why mining silver, ship it to China for solar panel production, and then import them back? This process could be done domestically,” noted Tony Makuch, CEO, Discovery Silver.

Experts at Mexico Mining Forum PDAC 2025, stressed the importance of building positive synergies in the areas where a mining company operates, helping all stakeholders understand the benefits mining brings, so they can act as “ambassadors,” of the sector at federal levels. “Building local capacity makes good business sense because it shortens pricing cycles. Over time, we have learned to prioritize spending and managing costs in local currency whenever possible,” Makuch noted.

A key factor that mining companies will closely monitor is the development of Mexico's new regulatory framework. Under President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, the government, in collaboration with mining insiders, aims to release the new framework by June 2025, addressing administrative delays, transparency, and community engagement. Key elements include streamlined procedures, social certification, and a public-private partnership model. This framework is expected to attract investment and ensure high environmental and social standards. “We are beginning to see in this administration some changes that are tremendously positive to that future, we see great opportunity for those that have been in Mexico for a long time,” Simpson added. 

Experts believe that despite geopolitical challenges like tariffs, there are opportunities to strengthen internal prosperity, with policy shifts aligning to support this growth. “We talked to federal officials who told us that their purpose for attending PDAC was to get the message across that Mexico is open for business,” Snowden noted. 

"I think Mexico will refocus on rebuilding trust and certainty by speeding up permits. The positive aspect is that authorities will get back to work on attracting investment. Good things always emerge from challenges, like, in this case, tariffs," highlighted Javier Reyes, Founder, Luca Mining.